Hand Ranges and Reads

Posted at the advice of Taipan.

The key question is whether you think you are ahead of your opp's range of hands rather than his actual hand.

When reading HOH or doing the tests in WPT Poker magazine, I make pretty good judgements. This is no doubt due to the fact that I can go into the tank and think about it for a while and also due to the extra info provided about the playing style of the villain.

In online poker, you don't get that time luxury, especially with the time bar turning red, bleeping, flashing or what have you. And I have found it hard to read opponents due to the extreme hand ranges they play. We know A7, J8, K10 and Q2 are poop but they don't. So the entire deck can be in play. You have pockets Js and the board is 2310, it looks safe, you face major resistance, scared of trips but are now pot committed, and you breathe a sigh of relief as you win and he only had KA. Next time though, he has 2 pair.

Add to this many get a bizarre satisfaction of bluffing (and showing) 72 and you end up in a situation where it's mainly down to playing your cards rather than reading them. I accept that this is the way forward for now yet am concerned about this glaring deficiency.

That's not to say I don't make reads, I do, just not as much as those of you who are making good money. And overall, it's just a sense of them being weak or strong - rather than actual hand ranges. Mainly because anything is fair game at this level.

At first I thought I was making a lot of innate reads due to my win rate but maybe I win so much due to being TAG - and betting 80 -100% of the pot when I have a hand, driving out any weak holdings. I've read the articles such as analysing hand ranges and betting patterns but for the most part, I am not seeing any. They bet on any two cards and will often donk 90% of their chips only to fold on the river. Maybe it's as clear as day and I am just not good enough to see it yet. And that's a vicious circle.

Even harder is the fact that the game is over in 45 minutes and I'm onto a new batch of villains. So even if my initial reads were way off target, I don't spend enough time with them to get to refine them. Add in 2 tables at the same time and it's even harder.

Most info I get is usually from their bets - but it has to be glaringly obvious like a post flop bet of 20 after a pre flop raise to 150, or insta all in when an innoccuous card come son the turn.

Eg: 1st game in today, I had 55 but folded as it was raised to 8xbb pf. Flop came 5JQ. At first I fancied this to be easy for the trips, had I played. However, much raising/reraising ensued. Then the remaining cards came 7 and 10. The heat was immense and I was glad I folded. I guessed that both had grabbed a piece - but the war was between AA and 1010 - how wrong I was. I've seen AA contest this for sure, but also trips, 10K, QA, JQ and even 84. And my trips were leading but I wouldn't have liked to be in there when hell broke loose.


So I've read the articles but am not getting anywhere fast on this front. Any suggestions? And remember the level I am playing at.

Any thoughts about doing a video demonstrating putting opponents on ranges.

Originally Posted by Thunder

So the entire deck can be in play. You have pockets Js and the board is 2310, it looks safe, you face major resistance, scared of trips but are now pot committed, and you breathe a sigh of relief as you win and he only had KA. Next time though, he has 2 pair

I have to stop you here. Although I appreciate this is a rhetorical device, it is worth pointing out that in fact, while he will occasionally hit 2 pair, you are going to be ahead on this flop a high proportion of the time, vs aggressively played draws, 44-99, AT, KT, QT, JT and the like. The number of times the villain will have QQ+, 23, 22, 33 or TT is extremely small in comparison. So a truer statement (and I am plucking this figure out of thin air) is "one time out of the next four occasions, he has two pair", the inference, and the point, being that 4 times out of 5, you stack the fucker. That is how you win at poker, and the times we lose we accept as how probability works and move on.

Originally Posted by Thunder

And overall, it's just a sense of them being weak or strong - rather than actual hand ranges. Mainly because anything is fair game at this level.

This is agree with - and have posted about it before, that it's more important to know the type of player you're playing at microstakes than to try and put him on a hand. But it's all shades of the same principle - using your knowledge of the players individually and as a group to decide whether you likely have them beat.

Originally Posted by Thunder

Eg: 1st game in today, I had 55 but folded as it was raised to 8xbb pf. Flop came 5JQ. At first I fancied this to be easy for the trips, had I played. However, much raising/reraising ensued. Then the remaining cards came 7 and 10. The heat was immense and I was glad I folded. I guessed that both had grabbed a piece - but the war was between AA and 1010 - how wrong I was. I've seen AA contest this for sure, but also trips, 10K, QA, JQ and even 84. And my trips were leading but I wouldn't have liked to be in there when hell broke loose. (my italics)

Let me get this straight - are you saying you don't want to be involved in a hand where you have a set and the betting goes mad? 55 with a 5JQ is close to my perfect hand - you have Jx, Qx, AK, KT, JQ, AA, 9T, KK all squabbling for a piece of the action AND YOU HAVE THEM ALL BEAT. You are behind two hands here - two out of 169 - you say a little prayer of thanks to whatever deity you prefer and get all your chips in.

Of course, your fold pre-flop was absolutely correct. And the fact that as it played out, you'd have been stacked by TT, is utterly irrelevent. If you have problems with this kind of situation when are you ever going to get your money in better?

As you siad, it was rheotrical, just never knowing what board is "safe" or not as weird combos are the norm: J6, 103 etc.

using your knowledge of the players individually and as a group to decide whether you likely have them beat

yeah, but my ability to label right now is not that good. It's really vague. I just get a sense of "I think he's weak here" or more obvious like he's a maniac so will have low starting requirements.

Let me get this straight - are you saying you don't want to be involved in a hand where you have a set and the betting goes mad? 55 with a 5JQ is close to my perfect hand - you have Jx, Qx, AK, KT, JQ, AA, 9T, KK all squabbling for a piece of the action AND YOU HAVE THEM ALL BEAT.

LOL! Sounds silly when you put it like that.

I guess it was just another example of not knowing where I am or what is going on, who has what. Holding QQ, an ace hits the flop and someone bets - where am I? If I make a straight but there's a possible flush, where am I etc?

It's sort of hard to describe, but personally I think a lot of it comes from experience and the ability to determine, based upon reads (eg. from HUD stats), betting patterns, position, stack sizes etc, whether you are likely to be ahead or behind.

Sometimes it can be a very very close decision and could go either way, and can be completely different based upon reads on a player. For example, at a $5.50 against an unknown player something like AK that hits an A or K on the flop is very often the best hand, if they have a random two pair or set then I pay them. However, against a winning regular player at a $60 turbo giving me serious action on a rainbow A72 flop I am probably getting out.

Originally Posted by Thunder

I guess it was just another example of not knowing where I am or what is going on, who has what. Holding QQ, an ace hits the flop and someone bets - where am I? If I make a straight but there's a possible flush, where am I etc?

For the QQ situation, see the hand I posted in the SNG forum - although it's not identical it is similar. For the straight on a flush board, like most things it depends. Do you have the nut straight or do you have the arse end? What has the betting pattern been like so far? How many players in the pot? What are stack sizes relative to the pot? All these things are relevant considerations.

What has the betting pattern been like so far?

With flushes that can throw me, especially if its runner runner suited - and makes a flush when the villain had been betting on top pair.

i think what you arent aware of yet is that a certain type of hand plays exactly the same way most of the time, and that understanding these 'lines' is what putting your opponent on a range of hands is all about.

If someone check/calls all the way to the river and then open shoves when the draw hits, then you know he probably has it. Why do you know this, because thats how microstakes players can play their flushes.
In essence you know the range of cards your opponent has. In a lot of examples the information you have isnt as clear or your hand is much mor marginally strong, 2nd pair for example.

What you dont know yet is how lots of these other hands play after the flop, and that will come the more hands you play.