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 Originally Posted by OngBonga
Personally, if I got as far as the turn (I wouldn't be in the hand in reality), I'd check for sure. If he's flushing, he's checking behind for certain, the board just paired, our check could easily be a made boat letting him see a free river.
imo we should be betting at least pot on the turn because villain has so many draws we want him him/her to play incorrectly. plus we only really lose to 8x,T9,JJ,QQ. couldn't see the actual suits or order of each card when i stoved it but anyway - this is our equity on the turn without all the flush draw combos (which our opponent is likely to call with):
Board: Jc 8c Qh 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.576% 63.84% 01.74% 4410 120.00 { QcJd }
Hand 1: 34.424% 32.69% 01.74% 2258 120.00 { QQ-99, ATs+, KQs, KTs, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KQo, KTo, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }
with this range, based on his equity, is he making a bigger mistake if he:
- calls 1/2P
- calls 3/4P
- calls a PSB
- calls an overbet shove AI
obviously the more money that goes in on this turn against that range, the better for us. because we have the equity edge. checking this turn is pretty bad vs this guy in my opinion.
edit: i don't advocate overbet jamming here. i was just trying to illustrate that the more money he puts in the pot with that range on the turn, the bigger a mistake he's making. especially if we're good enough to kill his implied odds and not pay him off.
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