Quote Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
I have 118 hands against him.
Here are the stats:
31/1.6/1.6


Pacific Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (MP): $2.00
MP+1: $1.90
LP: $2.06
CO: $2.00
BTN: $2.54
SB: $0.53
BB: $2.36
UTG: $2.00
UTG+1: $0.83

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02, UTG+1 posts DB $0.03, Hero posts DB $0.03 This is obviously bad, especially from mp, wtf?!, CO posts DB $0.03

Pre Flop: ($0.12) Hero has Q J

UTG raises to $0.10, fold, Hero calls $0.08, fold, LP calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold

I call the bet because QJ is in my calling range for preflop in a late position. It shouldn't be, especially offsuited and vs an ep open
Villain calls 29% of preflop hands.
So that makes his preflop range 29% of the 31% of his Vpip range? nope, it means his range when he calls here is about 30% of hands, not 10%
That is about a third or 10% however, because he is in a late position and there has been money in the pot I will widen that a bit to allow for set mining and I get this:

22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo probably worth stoving to see how close this gets to 30%, but definitely add many unsuited aces, all Axs, all broadway combos, and most suited connectors and gappers. Maybe even a few non-suited connectors.

Flop: ($0.40, 3 players) 8 Q J
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.28, LP calls $0.28, fold

That's nice. I make a standard c-bet for me of 2/3 pot. this isn't a c-bet cos you weren't the preflop raiser, also, bet closer to pot on such a connected board He calls.

According to his stats he folds 44% of the time to a flop bet. so, take the correct preflop range, then he's calling any flush draw, and pair+gutshot, any made hand - and he's a station so bet big. So I can leave him with a little over half of the top of his range and that should be this if I include flush and straight draws. I also take out QJs because I can see blockers for this combo in my cards and the board. So I have this:

QTs, 88, KK+, AT, AQ, KT, AJo+, JJ, A9c+, KTc+, QTc+,

The question here is would he have raised if he had trips? What should I be looking at to know this? he has a pfr of 1% and that was probably a misclick. He doesn't know how to bet or raise without the absolute nuts, and will slowplay these sometimes as well. Include all made hands in his calling range.

Turn: ($0.96, 2 players) 8
Hero bets $0.47, LP calls $0.47

I didn't get anything out of that so I make a half pot bet because I think I probably have a stronger hand at the time. bad logic, if you are confident he is ahead then you shouldn't be putting more money in. But you're still ahead most of the time and he isn't folding his draws. If you bet then at least charge his draws, especially if you're not good enough to fold 2pr on a bad turn - close to pot is good.

Going over things afterward I can say he didn't get a flush or straight out of that and he calls even though he doesn't have pot odds to call so now his range is this:

QTs, 88, KK+, AQ, AJ, JJ

I now doubt even more that he has trips because he really should be raising me, if he has JJ then raising this turn would be stupid so I am going to make it:

QTs, KK+, AQ, AJ seems like quite an arbitrary range downsizing

River: ($1.90, 2 players) A
Hero bets $0.57, LP calls $0.57

I don't like the look of that. It could give him trip Aces, it hits his AQ, and AJ. more importantly, any Ax hand he has now beats you, including A9 cos AA88x beats QQJJx... flushes got there. etc

So I make a small bet to at least get something in the pot because I still have a strong hand. I don't want to check and miss on value but also want to see what he does. If he raises then I fold? look at your stack behind and pot size etc then check-fold to anything less than like 10c. What do you beat that a 1% pfr is betting?
comments in bold italics above