a hand that matters? two pair, 25nl

x-post from blog - is my reasoning sound?

pots where you lose a bunch of $$ because of playing badly are very important. Hands where you play badly are all incredibly important. Avoiding bad plays is all about figuring out ranges, considering available options, identifying the decision you like, then sticking with that fucking decision. Pots where you get bad-beat/coolered and are generally happy with the line taken don't matter much at all. It's fucking cool that the important aspects of winning at poker are very much within the sphere we have control over! Variance happens, that's less important, so why spend time focusing on it.

an example of the type of hand that matters:

villain is loose passive, like 20-4 or something over an ok sample. Station. Bad. Haven't seen him bluff. Good player to have at the table. Easy to play against.
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($31.98)
Button ($43.01)
SB ($10.55)
BB ($22.50)
UTG ($64.63)
UTG+1 ($5.32)
MP1 ($13.36)
MP2 ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 2
4 folds, Hero bets $0.60, Button calls $0.60, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.55) A, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, Button raises to $2.88, Hero raises to $5.28
ok, this raise is marginal, but button has AK/AQ in his range even after the raise and he is likely to station his stack away over the next two streets with these hands once he calls. Important decision, think about it, act.
Button raises to $17.39,
ok, now life is easy. He beats AK. No question. What is the worst hand that beats AK here? A2. So. We have A2. We split vs the bottom of his range (AA/A7/A2/77/22) and lose vs everything else. Making a mistake here is the sort of important decision i was talking about.

This one has more meaning to me than the flush hand.

Why is there no question that he beats AK? Is it stake related? It seems like at 2 or 5nl AK would be happy to stack off here. Although this line of thought might be holding me back as it is.

i agree, fishy player at 25nl would stack off with AK on this flop easily no?

my reply from your OP:

Originally Posted by caddie444

^^^
You have 40% equity vs AA,77,22,AKs,A7s,A2s,AKo,A7o,A2o. You're equity improves if you take out A2o & A7o, as well as if you add AQ. I think your actual equity here is prob 3 or 4 % higher since I don't think he's flatting A7o or A2o the same % OTB as his suited Aces. My guess is you have like 43% equity when he 4B's flop.

I wouldn't hesitate to shove over if we had 100BB's, but you're slightly deeper which might make a difference.

You have 0 FE, so the math of shoving over is:

you're risking $26.10 more to potentially win $64.71, so you need 40% equity.

Obv if he can't have AK you should just fold since you're equity drops into the crapper, but in the long run I don't think it matters too too much which way you go here, since I actually think he plays AK like this a good amount of the time.

Would stack off with AK: yes. Would minraise/4b all-in (basically) with AK: no.