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This hand made me feel like a fish.
Only 7 hands in, no sample set for a read.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($19.05)
SB ($4.75)
BB ($25)
UTG ($14.80)
Hero ($25.30)
MP1 ($28.90)
MP2 ($29.20)
CO ($46.40)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A , A .
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, 3 folds.
Flop: ($2.35) 6 , 3 , K (2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO raises to $6, Hero raises to $24.3
Ignore for a moment that I'm essentially showed the results here. If I was ahead when the money went in here I wouldn't have posted this, and that's obvious to a lot of readers.
The issue is what is missing from my thought process. It looks like with the amount of money behind I should have been able to sniff out a set and get away, but that's not what happened. I looked at it, tried different tacs, but I can't figure out how I should have gotten away.
Here's my idea of the V's range when he raises me, minus the pure garbage (since I don't plan on giving up to a single raise):
Board: 6s 3s Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.761% 60.76% 00.00% 15640 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 39.239% 39.24% 00.00% 10100 0.00 { 66, 33, AKs, KQs, KsJs, 5s4s, AKo, KQo }
If villain's range is fairly correct for what he'll felt on the flop, than I'm only a slight favorite, and I should be able to bet in a way that gives me enough info to fold.
After I call his raise there's 14 in the pot, I have 18 behind. So if my 3-bet here is small enough for me to fold, I still can't fold because he can still push with hands that I beat.
Can I get away here?
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