Hand help

Originally Posted by EasyPoker
Only had 16 hands on Villain, but his stats were 81/25/38.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($2.76)
Hero (MP) ($2.37)
CO ($4.95)
Button ($1.90)
SB ($7.89)
BB ($3.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, J
UTG calls $0.02, Hero bets $0.10, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.08

He limped in UTG, then flat called my bet. I honestly didn't know what range I could put him on at this point because he didnt raise PF, but I figured it could be as wide as 22-99, Ax, KT, KJ, KQ, QJ, QT, 76s+. Anything else I figure he would have mucked or raised.

Flop: ($0.23) 9, 2, A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.18, UTG calls $0.18

After this round, I thought he might be slowplaying a strong hand, I figured his range was definitely Ax, 89s, 22, 99 and any of the PF range above if it was two spades. I preferred a draw though, as I thought he would have raised my flop bet.

Turn: ($0.59) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

I checked him intending to bet the river. At this point I thought his range was pretty much identical to his range on the flop. The point is though, I was stuck here.

River: ($0.59) 10 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.82, Hero calls $0.82

After this, I put him on Ax, 22, 99 or just air. I called because my equity is 51%.

Total pot: $2.23 | Rake: $0.10


Have I analysed this correctly?

bet turn.

bet turn card all day long... crazy check... had he come over the top on the river what would you have done? I hope the answer is call, but this dude is reckless. He's playing what? Every two cards that show up in front of him.

shove on the river, by some chance had he played the hand well and hit a set with {99, 22, TT} he'll probably call for sure especially if he called your turn bet.

I'm not even putting Ax in his range since he plays everything and most likely would have raised pre with any A. The fact that he called your preflop raise means nothing in this situation other then he probably has two suited spade cards or possibly {Kx, Qx, Jx, 22+}

I might be wrong about this, but in retrospect, I'm not quite sure I had any fold equity, given what he did turn up with.

you are betting for value on the turn, not for fold equity. you are ahead of his range and want to build a pot.

bet turn for value

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

I might be wrong about this, but in retrospect, I'm not quite sure I had any fold equity, given what he did turn up with.

even in retrospect, he's still just as likely to call with FD's (and there are a bunch of them), TT-KK, a lot of 9's and all sorts of worse Ax's as he is to call with A9/A2/99/22/AK/AQ. if you count up all those combos, there is PLENTY to make this a profitable value bet (actually there's enough to value bet with A3o).

turn check behind hatin it.

You make money from this guy by value betting the fuck out of everything and mixing that in with some high value bluffs (particularly if he's tipping his hand.) He will often respond by giving you even more action and this dynamic often results in you getting more than your fair share of chances to stack him. Or sometimes he just cuts you off....

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

I might be wrong about this, but in retrospect, I'm not quite sure I had any fold equity, given what he did turn up with.

WHAT IN THE FUCK!




FOLD EQUITY?!

I bet J9 for value on this turn.

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

I might be wrong about this, but in retrospect, I'm not quite sure I had any fold equity, given what he did turn up with.

you don't want him to fold. your hand has HUGE amounts of equity versus villain's range. you want him to call. you gain from fold equity when you get villain to fold a hand that is correct in calling based on equity/pot odds etc. ie you flop a flush draw on J57 and bet it in position. villain check/calls (and coincidentally has JTo) and the turn is an offsuit ace. he checks and you fire again, he folds, showing his middle pair to the table. had he known your hand, the right play was to call. your hand had something like (as a guess) 20-23% equity depending on if you had an over or not. but you were able to fold a decent enough part of villain's range due to the ace falling that a semi bluff was +EV. (aka you realised that, despite your naked flush draw having >30% equity versus bvillains range, you had a fair bit of fold equity due to the ace being an overcard for most of villain's middle pair or Jx range)

^ that rant mightnt make any sense. i'm half drunk

you're always half drunk, of fully drunk! lol... but yes, it made complete sense and as I see it, should help OP understand better

"Only had 16 hands on Villain, but his stats were 81/25/38. "

"I figured it could be as wide as 22-99, Ax, KT, KJ, KQ, QJ, QT, 76s+. Anything else I figure he would have mucked or raised."

do you know what those 3 numbers you gave mean? learn more about the first one (VPIP) and you can come up with a better range

yeah, it means his range is pretty much 23o+.......and his raising range is 23s+, 59o+, lol

bet turn shove river make monies