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a hand that doesn't matter? nut flush 25nl

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  1. #1
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    Default a hand that doesn't matter? nut flush 25nl

    I'm still thinking after my first few hands back after a 6 week break.

    [x-post from blog] pots where you lose a bunch of $$ because of playing badly are very important. Hands where you play badly are all incredibly important. Avoiding bad plays is all about figuring out ranges, considering available options, identifying the decision you like, then sticking with that fucking decision. Pots where you get bad-beat/coolered and are generally happy with the line taken don't matter much at all. It's fucking cool that the important aspects of winning at poker are very much within the sphere we have control over! Variance happens, that's less important, so why spend time focusing on it. [/x-post]

    an example of the type of hand that doesn't matter:
    UTG is a bad limp-calling station who thinks that TPTK+ is the nuts, over a decent sample. BB is a stabby fish.

    Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (MP2) ($28.47)
    MP3 ($12.04)
    CO ($0.75)
    Button ($16.34)
    SB ($21.03)
    BB ($19.35)
    UTG ($51.92)
    UTG+1 ($10.81)
    MP1 ($29.66)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, Q
    UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero bets $1.10,
    Pretty standard iso, we have a card advantage vs his l-c range, we have a positional advantage, and we are arrogant enough to be confident we have a skill advantage. Nobody at the table is prone to making decisions to 3b on a situational basis (e.g. here where i have an obviously weak-ish range after my fish iso)
    1 fold, CO calls $0.75 (All-In), 2 folds, BB calls $0.85, UTG calls $0.85

    Flop: ($4.15) 9, A, 7 (4 players, 1 all-in)
    BB bets $2.50, UTG raises to $11.65, Hero raises to $27.37 (All-In),
    flop nuts ez game, or is it? ok, we have two options here. Raise all-in, or call and get it in on any turn. BB is folding vs the utg raise unless he has a flush or set, hard to tell what he'll do with A7 (what about AxJh?, what about A9?)- cos stabbing is what he likes to do. He's not folding a flush or set no matter what, so a raise is fine against his range, it's unlikely we miss much value and if we do it's marginal. UTG has two pair/sets/AK/weak flushes and he isn't folding any of them after that raise, but he may somehow find the fold button on some turns. figuring out ranges, considering available options, identifying the decision you like, then sticking with that fucking decision. EZ game.
  2. #2
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    irc convo below, some edits for continuity and correction

    <TheLongGrind> lawl getting it on turn when u know his range are sets and board pairs seems avoidable
    <daven> ^ that's the point
    <daven> or is it?
    <daven> his range isn't sets
    <daven> i defined his range
    <daven> it includes sets
    <daven> as well as tptk/flushes/two pair
    <Carrotz> calling can be better, depends on bb
    <daven> ^ cool
    <daven> post why in the thread?
    <daven> maybe keep bb in?
    <daven> i guess
    <daven> but is it about a neutral ev decision call vs shove?
    <daven> given that we can't fold vs utg on a 7 turn
    <Carrotz> causing bbs continiing range to be wider is prolly more significant than the few turns you lose value by calling flop vs the few combos of sets utg can have
    <daven> -> i more often make more money out of bb when i flat than the money i occasionally lose on a shitty turn?
    <daven> is that better
    <Carrotz> geting bb to continue with like AxJh and two pair maybe even like top pair if hes bad
    <Carrotz> but if bb is good enough to jus fold top pairs then I like jus shoving
    <Carrotz> depends on bb

    <daven> remember that utg isn't able to fold anything in his range
    <Carrotz> whats bb stats?
    <Carrotz> reads etc
    <Carrotz> if hes like a tag I think hes jus folding everything that isnt sets and flushes and getting it in otherwise
    <Carrotz> if hes a fish Id flat
    <Carrotz> if hes a reg or semi decent Id jus ship
    <Carrotz> cos if hes a not retarded I dont think you can widen his range much if at all by flatting
    <daven> tiny sample lag 30-20 but that's exaggerated by AA twice in 75 hands and the opportunity to 40% steal
    <daven> might actually be ok
    <daven> hasn't done anything stupid at all
    <Carrotz> yeah seems regish
    <Carrotz> and he can't have any good flush draws with pairs
    <daven> and even managed a bet-fold that looked good vs his likely range and the villain concerned
    <Carrotz> thinks it pretty safe to say then that hes either folding regardless of what you do or getting it in regardless with any flush or set
    <Carrotz> cant see this guy not folding top pair or even like A7
    <Carrotz> utg can have some stupid AxJhshit
    <Carrotz> or A7
    <Carrotz> A9
    <Carrotz> and felt
    <Carrotz> think getting it in before the turn is another heart is more crucial
    <Carrotz> like thats only like 1/6 turns or something
    <Carrotz> but still its close enough that I think thatsways it to a ship
    <Carrotz> however if bb is a fish then keeping him in is more valuable
    Last edited by daven; 11-02-2010 at 09:32 PM.
  3. #3
    oskar's Avatar
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    I don't think it matters.

    If it was a low flush board I think calling is better, but on this one there aren't many scary turns for whatever they could have... and both should realize that a call is at least as strong as a push... unless they're damaged. Against super droolers you could call, but whatever man.
    whatever.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  4. #4
    Call is better IMO
  5. #5
    bikes's Avatar
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    bb dependant

    ?wut
  6. #6
    I think calling is better than shoving here. You can just put it in later I guess.

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