a hand and an absolute unknown

from quite a while ago. Unknown = isn't a reg cos volume
one hand of history, he 3b his big blind 5x vs a cutoff steal and took it down pre. To make it clear, he is 100/100/100 over 1 hand

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
daven (UTG) ($25.80)
UTG+1 ($22.41)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($9.75)
CO ($26.37)
BTN ($37.53)
SB ($25.63)
BB ($18.75)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) daven is UTG
daven raises to $0.85, 5 folds, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players)
SB bets $1, daven

Call. Without more info I'd limit him to mostly AQdd if he's leading with a draw. Pretty weak for a set. Looks like a scared QJ or 99,TT trying to take it down.

Ima raising; tonnes of Jx and flush draws will continue, if he goes after your stack; fold.

I'm raising. You wouldn't believe how many players donk flops like this at 10nl but either fold to a raise or flat call and c/f safe turn cards (assuming 25nl isn't wildly different). Easy fold in the unlikely event villain reraises of course.

i would be more inclined to call here vs. raising. Raising will force him to fold out his BS hands,re-raise with sets,str8+flush combo draws,possibly AJ if he thinks we raise draws here and he could play back at us with air which would make it diffucult for us to continue. Calling keeps him firing a second barrel a ton.

calling is better +EV then raising.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

calling is better +EV then raising.

care to enlighten us in camp raise how you came to this conclusion.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

calling is better +EV then raising.

rofl wat

given his 1/2 pot donk sizing i thought this was a raise, and not close cos massive value to be had vs xxdd/Jx/weird draws/88/etc? I'm going to look at that decision more closely. The next decision i found a little more interesting.

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players)
SB bets $1, daven raises to $3.80, SB raises to $7.50, $3.7 to daven ($21.15)?

Originally Posted by daven

given his 1/2 pot donk sizing i thought this was a raise, and not close cos massive value to be had vs xxdd/Jx/weird draws/88/etc? I'm going to look at that decision more closely. The next decision i found a little more interesting.

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players)
SB bets $1, daven raises to $3.80, SB raises to $7.50, $3.7 to daven ($21.15)?

this looks like a combodraw or set, MAYBE QQ, but either way we are now in a tough spot. hence my reasoning for flatting the donk bet in my earlier post.

It's very close, the 5x 3bet makes him less likely to be a reg. But the small 3bet means he likes his hand and isn't folding.

Against 55/22/AJ/A4dd/A3dd/A2dd we have 54% assuming he would 3bet QQ/JJ pre. Seems to all depend on if he takes this line with AJ.

I think folding/stacking off are very close in EV.

Against a complete unknown, I'd ship it. He can easily think AJ, TT, 99 or an oddly played QQ is good here. He can also have a very unlikely but possible slowplayed KK. We're not in such great shape against his flush draws, but we're still a big favourite and there is a lot already in the pot. A2dd or some other wierd Xd2d is flipping, but again there's enough in the pot we can't fold. Hell, even 34o might fancy its luck. He can have only 15 combos (unless he plays J5/J2/52 and I think we can discount them mostly) which are ahead.

Ship and be done with it I say.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

I think folding/stacking off are very close in EV.

With already nearly 30bb in the pot before he reraises, I think this is way off.

Unless we can be pretty sure this guy is tight and would not do this with a ton of hands he can have that are way behind, we can't fold KK here.

Originally Posted by bikes

rofl wat

by raising we can make him fold a lot of hands that are worse and will fire one more time. FD's will probably call, but not all, most of them will be NFD's that call our flop raise and we will lose the turn value from those smaller FD's and his KJ/QJ/JT/TT that will bet most of times on turn when we just call flop.

w/o any reads / stats we'd have to fold to a 3bet shove.

do the math for what he bets turn with, what he calls/fold/3bets flop w/ and see how much money we win/lose every time and see i am right.

Raising looks better to me. AQdd ATdd AJs KJs QJs TJs JJ 55 22. Throw in some unsuited Jx and some random flush draws, and this looks like a $$$ flop to me. Flat calling allows him to think his Jx hands are good, but it allows allows his flush draws to peel at his price, plus we don't know he folds out his top pairs.
I'm happy to get my stack in on this flop.

I'm curious to know what we should be raising to on this flop, if we choose to raise. Going to $4 seems excessive, but that's a half pot call for him, so that seems the minimum to me. Sizing is a problem for me in these spots.

I'm sigh-folding to villain's flop reraise without reads and more hands. I've stacked off KK more times than I can remember in this spot and it's clear he wants to get the money in without scaring hero away - I think he'd probably call or ship a flush draw rather than a small raise and would ship on a bluff too given his 5x first hand.

Does anybody think we can put villain on AA btw? Plenty of fish out there that 5x to a steal but don't want to frighten anybody off with AA. The most doubtful holding of course, but villain appears to be a fish.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

by raising we can make him fold a lot of hands that are worse and will fire one more time. FD's will probably call, but not all, most of them will be NFD's that call our flop raise and we will lose the turn value from those smaller FD's and his KJ/QJ/JT/TT that will bet most of times on turn when we just call flop.

w/o any reads / stats we'd have to fold to a 3bet shove.

do the math for what he bets turn with, what he calls/fold/3bets flop w/ and see how much money we win/lose every time and see i am right.

rofl wat

Originally Posted by bikes

rofl wat

care to post something productive in this thread?
e.g. explanation of why razvan's posts make you roll on the floor with laughter

not really no

Originally Posted by bikes

not really no

see below. Seems like repeated rude, unhelpful, and condescending remarks from you in this thread. Cheers for that. Respect.

Originally Posted by xianti

General Behavior

1. While constructive criticism is part of the learning and teaching process, repeated rudeness and unhelpful, condescending remarks in any discussion will not be tolerated

Thankfully my remarks weren't rude or condescending and I'm pretty sure lots of people still find my remarks helpful.

Infact I would argue that his tone is far more condescending than mine with his "you'll see that I'm right." As my remarks merely stated that I found his post humorous. Cheers =D

Originally Posted by acg123

this looks like a combodraw or set, MAYBE QQ, but either way we are now in a tough spot. hence my reasoning for flatting the donk bet in my earlier post.

i really don't like flatting my overpairs vs tiny donkbets from unknowns on drawy boards. @ razvan, i see what you mean, but i disagree with him auto-folding his weak made hands if we raise

ok, so i flat vs his flop 3bet here cos i think his range looks like JJ/55/22/Adxd/66-TT(discounted)/QQ/KK/AA(discounted)/TJ/QJ/KJ/AJ. Shoving gets a lot of folds from the subset of his range that we can get value from, so isn't very smart. Calling leaves us against a range we are doing well against AND makes us look weak, some fish will convince themselves we have a flush draw now...

@ bikes, nice sig. Eloquent, even if i do say so myself: "I damage threads that may actually benefit some posters"
i guess "rude", "condescending", and "helpful" can be viewed as subjectively as we choose

i have no raising range on this flop, it is not usual that people will call a raise here w/ Jx, but it is also possible that this villain will, i dont know that cause he is unknown an i prefer calling my all range here to keep his as wide as possible.

vs the average 25nl poker player i consider calling flop is better then raising and w/o no info on villain i do assume he is an average player.

the only draw is a FD and even then we have equity vs his made flushes since we hold the Kd and we have position that we can use to our advantage on turn / river.

when you flat his flop 3bet i think you make it clear you have a NFD /overpairs/ AJ , because 90% of times you will shove your sets here and fold your weak Jx and small FD's.


@bikes
you can rofl all you want, but the last year i donk think i ever made a post that was stupid and/or w/o arguments and/or w/o math behind it.
my posts were and will be ones written by a nit poker player and they will have tight opinions about poker play but they will never be -EV. my opinions will sometimes less +EV then the optimal play,but they will always be +EV.
like every post written is my opinion, not an advice and i state that in my signature.
when i said " see i am right" that wasnt an arogant remark mister, was a statement based on the math done w/ the ranges of an average 25nl player vs our actions, and i say average player because we have no info on the villain and w/o info i assume a player is average , not bad, not good , until i have reasons from his play to think otherwise. if you want you can assume w/o info that this is a bad poker player and stack off this flop w/ 5x if you like, is your choice and i will try to argument to you why i think that is wrong but i will never say "rofl" w/o any explanation.

and now, to be arogant so i can a deserve a " rofl", if you cant or dont know how to see if i am right/wrong w/ my statement in my first post of this thread, just say and i will teach you the math you need to see that vs the average 25nl player calling this flop in this spot is better +EV then raising.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

vs the average 25nl poker player i consider calling flop is better then raising and w/o no info on villain i do assume he is an average player.

i find this really interesting. I assume unknowns to be 'average unknowns', not average regs for the stake. Average unknowns don't keep their money long and i'm happy to run wide value lines against them. KJ would be about where i'd change my play here.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

my opinions will sometimes less +EV then the optimal play,but they will always be +EV.

i agree that calling flop is +EV, but i'm after max EV in spots like this.

p.s. good post

with all due respect razvan, how do you calculate the EV of calling this flop with so much money behind, so many combinations of cards which can fall on the turn+river, and as many different lines villain will take on different run-outs. also, how do you know his exact range to be able to find the exact EV of calling/raising? to say that you are "right" seems to imply you know every variable of this equation. which is impossible. players far more experienced than yourself posting in this thread have said they think raising has a higher EV than calling the flop. as best i know, daven has made a living playing these games for years and he has stated raising>calling vs an average 25nler in this situation. wouldn't it be wise to investigate the reasons (my guess here is that you are overestimating the strength of villain's continue vs raise range) behind their positions, rather than just assume your estimates of villain's different ranges, EV calculations, etc are necessarily correct?

for me, the average 25 nl player in this spot is someone who will :
- b/f flop w/ JT/QJ/KJ/TT/99/some AJ/ some small FD
- b/c flop w/ some AJ/ some small FD/ some NFD
- b/3bet flop w/ JJ/55/22/some NFD/ some AJ

and this ranges are aproximate also for non diamond turns.

that "some " in my opinion is "sometimes will fold/call/3bet".

math cant be exact, you are right, but counting combos that bet flop and will bet or c/c turn when we check flop on non diamond/ diamond turn and doing the math for those will reveal that calling flop vs a villain w/ ranges aproximate to ones i wrote is better then raising flop.

Noone's going to talk about flop raise sizing? Well ok then.

Raise your hand if you've ever abused your 'unknown' status during your first few hands at a table...

What... like 3-betting T8o on my first hand when there are already 3 limpers and a button raise? No, I'm just protecting my blind. lol.

So what was the outcome Daven? I know the outcome isn't the main point in the thread, but I'm interested given I have problems with overpairs.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

So what was the outcome Daven? I know the outcome isn't the main point in the thread, but I'm interested given I have problems with overpairs.

i posted the hand partly to see how nitty the bc is vs unknowns. Got an answer.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
daven (UTG) ($25.80)
UTG+1 ($22.41)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($9.75)
CO ($26.37)
BTN ($37.53)
SB ($25.63)
BB ($18.75)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) daven is UTG
daven raises to $0.85, 5 folds, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players)
SB bets $1, daven raises to $3.80, SB raises to $7.50, daven calls $3.70

Turn: ($16.95, 2 players)
SB bets $15.50, daven goes all-in $17.45, SB goes all-in $1.78

River: ($51.51, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $51.51
daven shows a pair of Kings

SB shows a pair of Jacks


daven wins $49.68 (net +$23.88)

SB lost $25.63

I guess at micros assuming unknowns are bad until proven otherwise is fine.

Originally Posted by daven

SB bets $1, daven raises to $3.80

Thanks for indirectly answering my question. Guess my $4 raise is reasonable.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

my posts were and will be ones written by a nit poker player and they will have tight opinions about poker play but they will never be -EV. my opinions will sometimes less +EV then the optimal play,but they will always be +EV.

Hey Razvan, instead of resigning yourself to being a nit who is barely better than BE at 50NL, and writing walls of text defending your nitty positions, maybe your time would be better spent figuring out why your approach is sub-optimal.

Bikes was kind enough to give you the correct answer, work out why it is.