A Good Example of When to C-Bet

Villain is 18/9/1.5 and folds to cbet 65% over a large sample.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($201.20)
UTG+1 ($264.05)
MP1 ($40)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($282.60)
CO ($62)
Button ($87.15)
SB ($201)
BB ($227.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T, 9.
Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, MP3 calls $8, 4 folds.

Flop: ($19) 5, 7, A (2 players)
Hero bets $16

Note that we have backdoor draws, a decent flop for c-betting on, and our range as a TAgg hits the flop really hard.

If you're going to c-bet in any particular spot, you should know exactly why your c-bet is going to be +EV.

So let's hear what you guys think.

Also see A Good Example of When Not to C-Bet.

I've found any flop with an Ace tends to help give my cbets more credibility. Also, if he calls, or even raises, you know he has something because he's shown he'll frequently fold.

Then, as you mentioned, you have a couple backdoor draws, so this one will be very easy to get away from he DOES keep playing here and if the turn doesn't help, and if you do get lucky and hit he won't see it coming and you get paid.

I'm more confident in my response to the other thread though...

Originally Posted by Hawkfan79

I've found any flop with an Ace tends to help give my cbets more credibility. Also, if he calls, or even raises, you know he has something because he's shown he'll frequently fold.

So what if his fold to cbet stat is 40%, he's positionally aware, and he has TT. What hands in our apparent range does he beat?

Both answers were good btw. Just going a little deeper.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

So what if his fold to cbet stat is 40%, he's positionally aware, and he has TT. What hands in our apparent range does he beat?

I'm still working out how a typical tagg plays, so I may be off on my assumptions here, but lets say we are normally raising mid+ pocket pairs, AQs+, and KQs UTG.

If thats correct, he's ahead of KQs, 88 and 99. Thats a pretty small part of our UTG raising range, all the more reason to fold. BUT, if his fold to cbet is 40%, doesn't he have to be calling/raising some cbets when he may not have the best hand? If I'm right on that, I would think he'd be more inclined to call/raise your cbet, especially since he has position, to either take it down or make you define your hand more clearly.

I'm a little stuck on where else to take this, but thats exactly why I got involved in this...to get a little deeper in my thinking processes.

i think those are pretty good, hawk.

one thing we havent mentioned yet...we are UTG, well, i guess you got that one in your 2nd answer, hawk.

with the A up, AK is likely to jump squarely into the mind of a TAG/nit like this.

all the more reason to do this occasionally with "thinkers." they are going to put you on a very narrow range, and when you hit a flop like 9 T 4, no way he believes your "cbet." and you get great action from overcards that whiffed entirely.

just realised why fold to cbet is better info on hud than calls cbet. I think my trouble was the description is "fold continuation bet" ie how often they fold their own cbet??? the word 'to' would have been usefull in that description.

good flop to c bet because it hit our range hard despite opponenet being a station. As said we do have draws that give us outs if we are called. I think a very intersting question is if the turn gives us a FD or a straight draw should we double barrel?

Originally Posted by MuddyWicket

just realised why fold to cbet is better info on hud than calls cbet. I think my trouble was the description is "fold continuation bet" ie how often they fold their own cbet??? the word 'to' would have been usefull in that description.

I just went away from "folds c-bet" to having both "calls c-bet" and "raises c-bet" on my HUD.

There's this phenomenon at NL10 on my site that I don't understand. In the last two weeks, we've gone from very few c-bet rr's to it happening every third time. I know. I became a c-betting monkey and it paid well for 3 months. It's not any more. I've got 7k hands that show it. If anyone knows what might have happened, I'd like to hear about it. (I try to avoid considering "the fish learned to play better" option. That's too bleak for words.)

Anyway, when I c-bet, he's got to either fold, call or raise, right? So I check his call + raise numbers both, now, to see if he's one of the new breed. I use color coding. I have "raise cbet" > 15% coded to show up red. (I just started this yesterday, to try to find countermeasures to the new trend, so any comments about where the danger zone is here would be appreciated.) And I can get his "folds to c-bet" number from the other two, most days.

These c-bet posts have been great for me. I'm really struggling with cbets right now. Thanks to Hawkfan and spoon and the others. This is really helping.

Regarding the backdoor draws - what do we do if a raggy diamond comes on the turn? Fire a second barrel every time I assume?

Originally Posted by biondino

Regarding the backdoor draws - what do we do if a raggy diamond comes on the turn? Fire a second barrel every time I assume?

It's not a bad spot to do so. I probably only two-barrel here about half the time if a low diamond comes since I don't want to be tempted to 3-barrel when we miss and a club misses as well on the river. If the 6 comes off, I'm betting the turn 100% of the time, though.

I'm not the best person to ask about turn play though. I'm pretty sure it's my worst street.