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giving a free card on the turn.. stupid or not?
I just took a few days off poker to analyze my game and fix some minor leaks. One of them is that I'm bit too agressive on the turn and river with hands like TPTK.
So I did a little bit of thinking and would like to know what you guys think. I'll post a fictive hand and I'd appreciate some comments.
** I suppose a full table of NL200 where I have no specific read on villain but PAHUD shows that he is a typical tight passive player. Low VP$IP, low PFR, good %win, etc.. (Note that I would not apply my strategy at NL25 were it is full of fish)
Hand:
You're on the button and you get: AcAs
EP limps, MP limps, You raise to 8$, Both blinds folds, Both limpers call.
Flop: Kh 9h 5d (Pot is now 27$)
EP checks, MP checks, You Bet 25$, EP folds, MP calls.
Turn: 3c (Pot is now 77$)
MP checks. What do you do?
Usually, I would throw a 50$ bet here to get rid of drawing hands but I'm not sure this is the best move (it might be at NL25)
My new strategy would be to check this turn with the intention of calling any river bet if the river is not a heart. Here's my thinking:
There's 3 type of hands that fits the betting pattern and what I know from my opponent:
1- Set
2- KQ, KJ (maybe AK but I'd go with KQ). He would have called what appear to be a c-bet from me.
3- Flush draw with Ah and maybe a middle pair too.
Now I want to figure out if I'm better off leading with a 50$ bet or just checking.
1- If he has a set and I bet 50$, he will most likely min-raise it to 100$. I know have a tough decision to push or fold.
If he has a set and I check, he'll likely bet the river but since I showed weakness, he'll probably make a smaller bet (30$) that I will call.
So if he has a set, checking is the best move as it would cut my losses.
2- If he has KQ, KJ and I bet 50$, he will most likely fold since he is tight and I don't expect a tight player to loose a buyin with KQ and KJ. So betting does not appear to be a good move.
If he has KQ, KJ and I check, he'll probably put me on AQ, QQ, JJ, TT. Chances are that he'll make a small bet on the river (or just checks it). If he bets, I call and I win. If he checks, I bet 30$ and he'll probably call thinking I'm just trying to buy the pot.. So checking the turn appears to be the best move again.
3- If he has a flush draw, off course checking the turn is not the best move. The turn is the last chance I have to take some of his money. If the river is a heart, I'll have to fold if he bets big. If the river is a rag, then I'll throw a bet but it likely won't be called. The odds that he catches his flush on the river are 1:5 so I can expect to still win the pot 5 times out of 6 even by giving a free card.
Overall, it appears to me that checking the turn is the best move (especially if I consider that the flush draw is the less likely holding here). Agree or not? I hate giving a free card but it seems like the logical move. As I mentionned earlier, I want to avoid losing big pots when I have AA-KK-TPTK. I realised that at NL200, a lot of the players are just sitting there waiting to crack someone aces.
And while we're at it, let's suppose the same hand but you're in EP this time and you're 25$ bet on the flop gets called by the button.. You need to act first on the turn, what is your move?
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