OK, so concept = sound, cobra-mathic formula = not so much.

thx

going back to the calc for pure bluffs to be +EV - can we recap this, plizz, as i'm trying to understand why to/how to use the rule and how it works, but just thinking myself round in circles.

Firstly, what are the arguments for the formula?

My first assumption was that we are using Pot_Size (given) and expected_Fold_% (from combo counting) to correctly size a pure bluff bet.

But then it occurs that we could also be using it to test whether a Bet_Size (planned) into Pot_Size (given) compares favourably to Expected_Fold_% in order to decide whether to bet or not.

or are they interchangeable?

Secondly, is Expected_Fold_% a constant? Doesn't Bet_Size have some impact on how likely Villain is to fold?