Get Better at Continuation Betting in One Lesson

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

So he's folding 12 combos or 26% of the time.

We need him to fold > 41% of the time for bluffs to be +EV, so we should only be cBetting this board for value with hands that do well vs. his calling range.

Without going into a debate about which hands we would expect him to play different ways pre-flop (a discussion I'm not interested in having, especially in this thread), everything but this part is good. You seem to be jumping to a conclusion based on a rule you've picked up somewhere without knowing why to/how to use the rule or how it works.

You need him to fold > 41% of the time for pure bluffs with no equity to be +EV. That doesn't include any of your semi-bluffing hands, and it doesn't take into account the hands he might call with on the flop but fold on the turn for whatever reason.

Good work though. I'm glad you're taking this seriously.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You seem to be jumping to a conclusion based on a rule you've picked up somewhere without knowing why to/how to use the rule or how it works.

pretty much sums up my poker experience to-date

OK, question: how does the above tie in with Villain's Fold-to-cBet %? I know that this stat is an average of his tendencies over every spot he's played, but it seems a bit redundant if we are going to examine each flop in this kind of detail each time.

or am i missing something (again)?

Moving on...

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You need him to fold > 41% of the time for pure bluffs with no equity to be +EV. That doesn't include any of your semi-bluffing hands...

Understood.

So for semi-bluffs, are we talking about Fold Equity here (i.e. another rule I've picked up somewhere without knowing why to/how to use, or how it works)?

AFAIK, our Total Equity = (our Current Pot Equity) + ((Chance Villain will fold) * (Villains's Pot Equity)).

If we use 8 8 for my hand in the above example, i have 23% Pot Equity vs. {JJ-TT,T9s,98s,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,8d7d} on Flop A, Villain has 77%.

If we expect him to fold ~23% of the time (i have adjusted for impact of blockers on his range this time) we have ~18% Fold Equity, and therefore ~41% Total Equity, which is 0EV.

Is this right?

Even so, we aren't getting any better hands to fold and we only have ~14% vs his calling range.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'm glad you're taking this seriously.

i hope that this was never in doubt. enjoying this...