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 Originally Posted by DoubleJ
So he's folding 12 combos or 26% of the time.
We need him to fold > 41% of the time for bluffs to be +EV, so we should only be cBetting this board for value with hands that do well vs. his calling range.
Without going into a debate about which hands we would expect him to play different ways pre-flop (a discussion I'm not interested in having, especially in this thread), everything but this part is good. You seem to be jumping to a conclusion based on a rule you've picked up somewhere without knowing why to/how to use the rule or how it works.
You need him to fold > 41% of the time for pure bluffs with no equity to be +EV. That doesn't include any of your semi-bluffing hands, and it doesn't take into account the hands he might call with on the flop but fold on the turn for whatever reason.
Good work though. I'm glad you're taking this seriously.
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