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Game Theory
Wondering if anyone has any thoughts on Game theory as it relates to Hold'em? I play a very math-oriented game which a lot of players here don't seem to care too much for.
Here's an example:
I'll call it the "semi-bluff check raise" A play I haven't ever seen in a book.
In a NL ring game, bilnds are $5/$10
Let's say you bring it in in for $30 holding AQh. 2 players behind you call along with the big blind. There is now $125 in the pot
The flop comes Kh, 8c, 3h giving you the nut flush draw.
The BB checks, you check, the next player bets $60 (1/2 pot) the button calls and the big blind folds.
There is now $245 in the pot.
You now have more than great odds to chase your flush and call.
(your odds are 2:1 of making the flush by the river and the pot is laying you 4:1)
but instead, given the size of the pot to your bet, you raise to $180 making the odds about 2:1 if called(245+180=425/180-or2.36:1,which theoretically, is a positive-expectation play.
if re-raised to $360 you still have implied odds to call. (fold if raised more)
You now have taken control of the pot, and could win if your opponent folds.
You have effectively disguised your hand and may get called even if you make the nuts.
If you check the turn, you may get a free card when your opponent checks behind you.
You may win by betting the turn (following this theory- $200 in to the now $605 pot to match your 4:1 odds of making the flush on the river)
I would only make this play maybe 1 in 9 times that it comes up,(I'd rather take the odds than lay them) but it is an interesting element to mix up my game.
I would love to hear thoughts.
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