ummm.. can't we get away with less than 50% in some cases?

Eg. If we know that we have 40% equity vs villains calling range but we also know he is going to c/f 90% of the time on the river then the extra dead money in the pot compensates for the fact that we may not be ahead of his range, no?

I mean, clearly in this example it would be a huge mistake to not bet the river just because we're not ahead of his calling range. We're picking up what's already in the pot so often we can sacrifice some equity and still make a +EV bet.


This could also be called a "thin" value bet imo. We know that there are some worse hands that are going to call us, we know there are some better hands that are going to call us, and we think that better hands are going to call more often, but betting still works.