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 Originally Posted by heatman
Thats where my theoretical knowledge runs slim. Knowing that he's got a 51% chance of hitting makes me a very slight underdog, even with the best hand at the time - but it doesn't take into account the idea that he might hit on the turn, and I could hit another any board pair to beat him with a full house. Thats 10 outs, counting the fourth ace that could fall.
So how do you figure that all in?
I addressed the full house at the bottom of my post. Factoring in the full house, he's a 57.6%:42.4% underdog, a reduction in his win percent of about 12% compared to the case when you just have top pair. That's why a set is so powerful against a flush draw. Even with the open-ended straight outs, he's still an underdog to you. This has powerful implications when your opponent doesn't have any straight outs against your set...
<edit> Just saw the 10 outs instead of 9, so I need to check my calcs.
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