Free Card or 2nd Barrell??

This is a question for the LAggier, trickier players. Ring, Sng, or tourney.

Assume villain is unknown and you both have comfortable stacks. You open with a standard raise with 7d8d on the button. BB calls.

Flops is A56r, villain checks and you bet 3/4 pot. Villain calls. Turn blanks and villain checks. Do you fire a 2nd barrell here or take the free river card?

Do you fire a 2nd barrell or take the free river card assuming the flop action was the same, turn blanked, and villain checked the turn for these flops?
Ad2d9c? flush draw
Ad4d5c? flush draw + gutshot
5d6dAc? OESFD

Please give your reasoning behind your answers.

Bumpy McBumpersons

Anyone? What is the more +EV play in these spots?

That's a tough question. I wouldn't say I'm tricky or laggy, either, but I play 6-max and come into this spot pretty often.

At my limit, I tend to check. It's hard to get a fold. I guess if I think a guy is floating a weak ace or middle pair, I definitely fire the turn. If I do, it's usually a pretty large bet, 2/3ish. I don't know the math, but I get a lot of turn folds and I think that when you hit the river you usually don't make a lot.

I'm more of an aggressive player.

Barrell against an unknown opponent. Half the pot? Pretend you have AK and are betting for value.

If he calls, hey...you've still got one more card. And if hits, you should be good. If it doesn't, this pot is his...

Check behind.

2nd barrel may backfire if someone slowplayed something and went for big turn checkraise. And it's quite possible especially on harmless board. The deeper stack is, the better is to check. If he floats with weak ace , completed draw may give him Aces up, hard to get away. If he slowplays set or already made two pair, 2nd barrel may be checkraised and in deep stacks it's disaster for nut draw because it ends up with folding a shitload of equity and forfeiting big implied odds.

It's the moment where openraising SC's pays off: decent pot in position, opponent with a hand and free shot at busting him. I can't count how many sets and twopairs I busted by picking free card with my disguised OESD.

Moving off underpairs is also possible after checking behind turn, on river opponent will probably check again with weak hand or make small blocking bet which we can run over by bluff-raise.

I think you can bet in all spots here. It is pretty weird play by opponent if he has a top pair or a set because there is a flush draw threat so you might be able to steal it on the turn. In the example of straight flush draw I guess it is almost a value bet because you are calling anyway. You made some great questions here. Hope other players will comment on this one.

But let's say you bet and he calls, river misses. Do you bet here? You probably should cause it is the only way to win a pot.

Great points you mention here. I wonder on this topic many times.

free card

Looks like I'm getting about 50/50 here for betting/checking so it seems to be a borderline or playing-style-dependent situation. Anyone care to bring some math to the table?

I play an aggressive game and fire the 2nd barrell here a good 75% of the time but at the moment I'm not too happy with how things play out in these hands. I'm wondering if my bet size needs to change or if I should check behind.

Could anyone do a mathematical analysis of whats more EV here?

If I check behind:
I hit my draw which should be well disguised and should hopefully get another bet out of my opponent.
I miss my draw and bet/raise any check or weak blocking bet
I miss my draw and fold to a large bet

If I 2nd barrell:
I may get ace-rag, mid-PP, other draws to fold and take the pot
I get check/raised large and have to fold when I could have just seen a free river card
I get a call and hit river, probably get another bet here
I get a call and miss river and either give up or fire a 3rd barrell

Originally Posted by Vrax

Check behind.
...
2nd barrel may be checkraised and in deep stacks it's disaster for nut draw because it ends up with folding a shitload of equity and forfeiting big implied odds.

I agree.

it depends on the opponent

3 main factors will influence the decision. the strength of my draw, how tight is he, and does he like to check raise a big holding? Against a random, I'll barrell the non-nut flush draw. Just so I do semi-bluff sometimes for balance, and because it's got the least equity and I consequently gain the most when he folds

With the ace on the flop I check the turn if he calls my bet on the flop. Because theres a good chance he has the ace. Now if there was no AK or Q on the flop and one hit the turn. Then I would bet the turn hard to represent the card. Otherwise I check the turn and bet the river if I miss the river and he checks it to me. Got to take one last shot at this point.

ya, this depends on more than the board. edit, oops I just realized you said to assume it's vs an unknown, oh well...hopefull this still helps. vs an unknown I just would mix up maybe 50/50 and hope to pick up clues on timing (if he thinks longer maybe he hit a bigger hand)...
actually I think it's better to 2 barrell with deeper stacks because there is less chance to get blown off the draw (more implied odds), and it's more threatening of a bet.
I think, like salsa's post, considering the likelihood of them folding vs the likelihood of getting blown off the draw is especially important.

other thoughts..
- if someone is especially passive, I might make another bet, especially with bigger draws, mainly to increase the pot size if I hit. I'm not so sure this is a great idea though.
- or if they've shown they call the flop real weakly (floaters), and (like rondavu wrote in another thread) especially if they raise the flop with hands they're comitted to like tptk or sets.

btw a while ago, I posted a similar thread in the short handed forum, and there was some good discussion toward the end - http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=45816

Against an unknown, I'm usually firing a second barrel here. If you check behind you're going to have a really hard time winning the pot if you don't hit, and if you do hit, the pot is small. Against a solid tagg regular, I'd say it's about 80/20 bet/check and the same with AK/AQ/AJ.

Originally Posted by zook

If you check behind you're going to have a really hard time winning the pot if you don't hit, and if you do hit, the pot is small.

Do you fire third barrels into unknowns alot (not retorical question)?

Against a solid tagg regular, I'd say it's about 80/20 bet/check and the same with AK/AQ/AJ.

I check behind AK/AQ/AJ as my standard play here against solid tagg regulars (as I dont see them c/c, c/c with draws alot), mixing in some bets to make my occational second barrels believable.

Edit; messed up quote

I don't think anyone mentioned this yet: When your draw is NOT to the nuts, you should be more inclined to semi-bluff. (NLT&P, practicallly a direct quote).

Could anyone do a mathematical analysis of whats more EV here?

You can't really - it depends on too many unknowns - villians range and tendencies - i.e., what is he ch/calling flop AND turn with? AJ?

If I check behind:
I hit my draw which should be well disguised and should hopefully get another bet out of my opponent.

[This sort of defeats the purpose of raising 78s in the first place - if you hit, you win a big pot. Checking behind keeps the pot small.

If I 2nd barrell:
I may get ace-rag, mid-PP, other draws to fold and take the pot

You actually want other draws to CALL when you have the nut draw.

I get check/raised large and have to fold when I could have just seen a free river card

This is way more likely on the 2-tone boards. What, he's going to c/r a/i to fold out straight draws?

I get a call and miss river and either give up or fire a 3rd barrell

Sometimes you got to fire that 3rd barrel!

I would not always play all draws the same way, even against the same opponents. Semi-bluffing has more value, but I think is significantly higher variance.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Originally Posted by zook

If you check behind you're going to have a really hard time winning the pot if you don't hit, and if you do hit, the pot is small.

Do you fire third barrels into unknowns alot (not retorical question)?

No. If it goes c/c, c/c, check, and I have a missed draw I'm usually checking against an unknown. Then I get to see his cards and he becomes a known If there's an obvious draw on the board that I think he was chasing, I might fire a third barrel, but I like to have a read.

All I was saying in the part you quoted is that firing a second barrel gives you a chance to immediately win the pot. If you check behind the turn, miss your draw and villain leads, you have to fold. If you check behind turn, miss your draw and villain checks, I think a river bet is often called, so it's a tough decision.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Originally Posted by zook

Against a solid tagg regular, I'd say it's about 80/20 bet/check and the same with AK/AQ/AJ.

I check behind AK/AQ/AJ as my standard play here against solid tagg regulars (as I dont see them c/c, c/c with draws alot), mixing in some bets to make my occational second barrels believable.

No, but they will c/c with TPGK, a hand that you can often push them off with a second barrel.

if you check the draw, you have to check AK/AQ here sometimes too. 2 barelling here is definitly worth it IMO

How about this...

Either 2nd barrelling or checking the turn will lead to approximately the same net +/-EV for the hand, however 2nd barrelling will lead to higher variance.

Thoughts?

Originally Posted by Vinterriket

How about this...

Either 2nd barrelling or checking the turn will lead to approximately the same net +/-EV for the hand, however 2nd barrelling will lead to higher variance.

Thoughts?

I disagree. I think a second barrel has more EV and causes higher variance.