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 Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
i think he is doing this with 88- jj all day,
(...)
A4s (2)
A7s ( 3)
44 ( 1)
66 ( 3)
77 ( 3)
88 ( 6)
99 ( 6)
TT ( 6)
JJ ( 6)
QQ (1)
kk (6)
AA (6)
76s (2)
45s (2)
58s/35s (4)
AKhh/ AQhh ( 2)
for a total of 59 combos
of those combos we are beating a7s, 88- jj, and the 2 flush draws= 29 combos
we tie the 1 combo of qq
and we are drawing to a 2 outter vs 29 combos in his range.
if we can add more flush draws, 89s, a7o to his range then this is hugely ev +, as you can see we have about 50% equity vs his range so the pot odds still dictate a call
Nice write up philly.
I underlined a few combinations I either don't think are likely or think that we would need reads on villain to reliably put them in their range. For instance I don't think too many 5NL types are just going to flat AA, KK, QQ, nor 53s or 85s. The Axs are probably more likely but again, knowing if villain was a 30/10 rather than a 15/11 would make a huge difference in our assumptions here.
Perhaps try running the numbers while having the 88-JJ combos reduced to 3 each and cut out the AQs set of combos. I think this might leave us about 40% or more, in which case the call is still good, but I still can't shake my feeling that villain's range is even stronger than that.
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