Folding Pocket Pairs Pre-flop

I've seen some talk about people playing low pocket pairs (88 - 22) pre-flop for almost any raise, in almost any position.

Let's get this out in the open.

Personally, I will limp with lower pocket pairs in a full ring game. "set it or forget it"

But in UTG with 44, I will tend to limp/fold depending on the raise / opponent / number of players / etc.

I call raises with pocket pairs all the time.

That being said, the 10x rule is bogus.

Yup. As long as their raise is 10% or less than their stack *and* mine, I'm calling it and looking to destack them.

10% isn't always my rule, though...If I'm at a NL100 table and somebody raises to $10 I may lay my 22 down and find a better spot. Somebody that raises that much doesn't usually want much action anyway so it's going to be hard to get paid off.

Now if somebody raises 10-12% of their stack and there are 3-4 callers in front of me...damn right I'm going to call.

Basically, I need to make back *at least* eight times whatever I put into the pot, because I will hit a set 1/8 times. So if I'm putting in $5 to see a flop I better take a pot of $40+ if I plan on having this be a +EV play.

Usually it is.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I call raises with pocket pairs all the time.

That being said, the 10x rule is bogus.

How is the 10x's rule bogus?

Please explain because the math says it's not.

Originally Posted by Humphrind

Personally, I will limp with lower pocket pairs in a full ring game. "set it or forget it"

But in UTG with 44, I will tend to limp/fold depending on the raise / opponent / number of players / etc.

I will call with the 44 UTG...hit my set, bet out like I'm saying "okay, I got a little something of that but are you serious about your hand?" When they say, "Yes, I'm serious about my hand," I take all of their money. Or sometimes I'll just check/call the whole way depending on who the raiser is...Most people can't get away from high PP's. I'll also sometimes check-raise on the turn, too, just to make sure I'm getting more money in (so it can't be checked down on the river).

Originally Posted by Ultimate George

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I call raises with pocket pairs all the time.

That being said, the 10x rule is bogus.

How is the 10x's rule bogus?

Please explain because the math says it's not.

You are assuming that
A) you never win when you don't hit your set and
B) you always take all of their chips when you do hit a set

Since neither of these are true, the 10x rule is bogus.

Because if you're playing 100nl and you go around calling $10 raises all day heads up out of position with ducks youre gonna go broke.

you only hit a set 1 out of 8 times so calling 10% of your stack means you need to double up every time you hit your set. think about the set over sets, flush boards, double paired boards, 4 to a straight boards, and all the times those scary boards scare not only you out of the pot, but the times you hit your set and those boards scare your opponent out of the pot, plus the times he just thinks you've hit a set and folds.

I think the lower the pocker pair, the more likely you are to destack somebody when you hit your set. You think they are scared to see a 2 or 3 hit the board? It won't even cross their mind. I don't know why people think 22 is any different than 99 if and ONLY IF you are playing your pocket pair against a raise for a set. You check/fold them all when you miss your set.

10x rule rules.

If not 10x, then what guide are you going by? Gut feeling?

Originally Posted by r8ed

I think the lower the pocker pair, the more likely you are to destack somebody when you hit your set. You think they are scared to see a 2 or 3 hit the board? It won't even cross their mind. I don't know why people think 22 is any different than 99 if and ONLY IF you are playing your pocket pair against a raise for a set. You check/fold them all when you miss your set.

10x rule rules.

If not 10x, then what guide are you going by? Gut feeling?

UTG raises 5xBB with AKo... MP calls with 22.
flop comes 279 rainbow.
UTG bets 1/2 pot as a continuation... MP calls.
turn is another 9. How much do you think AK is losing on this hand?

Now same action, but the flop is 379... how much is MP losing on this hand?
How about over 10 trials?

Now QQ raises, 22 calls, flop is 2KA...
AA raises, 22 calls, flop is 2KA?

If you want to pretend like math is so important, any pocket pair is no more than a 4 to 1 dog to any higher pair, and is a favorite over any unpaired hand.

There are 16 ways to make an unpaired hand. There are only 6 ways to make a pair. There are only 13 pairs, and there are 78 unpaired hands.

Since you are a huge favorite to have the best hand, and not too big a dog if you don't, why don't you just re-raise every time you have a pair?

You are taking a very simplistic look at odds. While a set usually wins, it doesn't usually win enough for the 10x rule to be profitable.
10x is very close though, if you include the times you win unimproved. You can not win unimproved if you fold, so "no set no bet" doesn't work at 10x, and you should be looking for 15-20x.

semi-loose/weak PokerStars NL game.

3 limpers to you on the CO with 88, button + blinds are typical. What's the most profitable play here?

Originally Posted by Fnord

semi-loose/weak PokerStars NL game.

3 limpers to you on the CO with 88, button + blinds are typical. What's the most profitable play here?

I will lay odds most players limp.
I raise to 5xBB.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I will lay odds most players limp.
I raise to 5xBB.

What's magic about 5x? Why not 3x, 4x or 8x? What's the best possible pre-flop result for us?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I will lay odds most players limp.
I raise to 5xBB.

What's magic about 5x? Why not 3x, 4x or 8x? What's the best possible pre-flop result for us?

It is what is in the pot lol.
I tend to make pot size raises. The size of your raise in NL is incredibly overlooked.
You are given the opportunity to lay the odds that your opponents will get on a call. 2 to 1 is a magic odds number to me, as it makes flush and straight draws unprofitable, and preflop 2 to 1 is about what you need to call when you often have the best hand, but run the risk of being dominated.

In practice, 5x is about what I think is required to thin the field to a single opponent who will fold to a continuation bet.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

In practice, 5x is about what I think is required to thin the field to a single opponent who will fold to a continuation bet.

Another thought it to go 3x to keep everyone along for the ride (particularly if there are some looser post-flop players in the field (I know that wasn't part of my originial question.)) That will often give you a free turn card when you miss and build a pot to stack someone when you hit.

The only part of that is it doesn't balance well with the amount I want to raise with stronger hands. But then again most of my opponents online suck, use HUDs or aren't paying enough attention for me to care too much about balancing bet sizes.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Originally Posted by r8ed

I think the lower the pocker pair, the more likely you are to destack somebody when you hit your set. You think they are scared to see a 2 or 3 hit the board? It won't even cross their mind. I don't know why people think 22 is any different than 99 if and ONLY IF you are playing your pocket pair against a raise for a set. You check/fold them all when you miss your set.

10x rule rules.

If not 10x, then what guide are you going by? Gut feeling?

UTG raises 5xBB with AKo... MP calls with 22.
flop comes 279 rainbow.
UTG bets 1/2 pot as a continuation... MP calls.
turn is another 9. How much do you think AK is losing on this hand?

Now same action, but the flop is 379... how much is MP losing on this hand?
How about over 10 trials?

Now QQ raises, 22 calls, flop is 2KA...
AA raises, 22 calls, flop is 2KA?

If you want to pretend like math is so important, any pocket pair is no more than a 4 to 1 dog to any higher pair, and is a favorite over any unpaired hand.

There are 16 ways to make an unpaired hand. There are only 6 ways to make a pair. There are only 13 pairs, and there are 78 unpaired hands.

Since you are a huge favorite to have the best hand, and not too big a dog if you don't, why don't you just re-raise every time you have a pair?

You are taking a very simplistic look at odds. While a set usually wins, it doesn't usually win enough for the 10x rule to be profitable.
10x is very close though, if you include the times you win unimproved. You can not win unimproved if you fold, so "no set no bet" doesn't work at 10x, and you should be looking for 15-20x.

I just looked at PT stats for pocket pairs where I cold call prelop raises (since 9/1/2005 since that's when I adopted the 10x rule). Out of 35 times, I'm at negative $9. I lost $9 on one hand because I tried a large bluff on a flop and folded to a push. Other than that I'm even. I only hit trips once out of those 35 times and a boat 1 once as well. On those two hands I made $20 at 25NL. Anybody else have a bigger sample size for the 10x rule? George?

Originally Posted by r8ed

I just looked at PT stats for pocket pairs where I cold call prelop raises.

The problem is that this query will mix a lot of really good calls, with a lot of break-evenish ones and a few terrible ones (like this... http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=75 )

i always limp with low pocket pairs... if i don't hit the set and the flop is low i consider staying in...

of course granted the board doesn't have a straight or flush out there...

Consider when you hit a straight draw you have two cards of those required... so you have the odds to draw to a straight a lot of the time

For example, the flop is 457 and you hold 66. You're likely ahead, and if you're not an 8 or a 3 gives you a straight.

I'm suprised reads have not even been brought up in this thread yet.

Certain types of players will pay off your small set with TPTK or an over pair.

Certain types will not.

Against Loose/Weak opponents raising to 5x BB when we are both holding 85+ BB stacks and we have position, it's an easy call all day with any pair. You know that every time you make your set and he pairs one of his broadways or has an unimproved over pair, you will get paid off more than 8x your pre flop call...So the implied odds are in your favor to call pre flop.

Same stacks, same raise, while you hold the same hand against a tight/compotent player, and it becomes questionable. What will your opponent do on the turn if he holds QQ and you smooth call his continuation bet on a semi-draw free board? Can you get this pot up to 40BB to justify your 5BB pre flop call?


Most players are of the opinion that calling up to 10% of your stack pre flop is +EV against a single opponent heads up because sets are so hard to detect and over pairs pay them off so consistently, but this isn't always the case.

I think you WANT to be up against a tight player. They only raise premiium hands and when they play them, they want to win with them. These are the people you can destack. They have KK or AA and you have 55. The flop comes out 5xx, where the flop is a minor threat. Turn comes and the board gets closer to a str8 and/or flush draw. They will bet this hard and all you have to do is call. If they aren't all in on the turn, they probably bet the river no matter what happens and you take their money.

Originally Posted by r8ed

I think you WANT to be up against a tight player. They only raise premiium hands and when they play them, they want to win with them. These are the people you can destack. They have KK or AA and you have 55. The flop comes out 5xx, where the flop is a minor threat. Turn comes and the board gets closer to a str8 and/or flush draw. They will bet this hard and all you have to do is call. If they aren't all in on the turn, they probably bet the river no matter what happens and you take their money.

Is a loose player more likely to fold AA/KK then a tight one? Guess i forgot to make one point clear that i assumed when i wrote that post:

Villain has to have a hand to pay off your set.

A loose/maniac raising with 9T suited from the button isnt going to pay your set off just because he's a maniac.

We are looking for a TAniac - someone who takes big pair and big slick too far.

Originally Posted by r8ed

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Originally Posted by r8ed

I think the lower the pocker pair, the more likely you are to destack somebody when you hit your set. You think they are scared to see a 2 or 3 hit the board? It won't even cross their mind. I don't know why people think 22 is any different than 99 if and ONLY IF you are playing your pocket pair against a raise for a set. You check/fold them all when you miss your set.

10x rule rules.

If not 10x, then what guide are you going by? Gut feeling?

UTG raises 5xBB with AKo... MP calls with 22.
flop comes 279 rainbow.
UTG bets 1/2 pot as a continuation... MP calls.
turn is another 9. How much do you think AK is losing on this hand?

Now same action, but the flop is 379... how much is MP losing on this hand?
How about over 10 trials?

Now QQ raises, 22 calls, flop is 2KA...
AA raises, 22 calls, flop is 2KA?

If you want to pretend like math is so important, any pocket pair is no more than a 4 to 1 dog to any higher pair, and is a favorite over any unpaired hand.

There are 16 ways to make an unpaired hand. There are only 6 ways to make a pair. There are only 13 pairs, and there are 78 unpaired hands.

Since you are a huge favorite to have the best hand, and not too big a dog if you don't, why don't you just re-raise every time you have a pair?

You are taking a very simplistic look at odds. While a set usually wins, it doesn't usually win enough for the 10x rule to be profitable.
10x is very close though, if you include the times you win unimproved. You can not win unimproved if you fold, so "no set no bet" doesn't work at 10x, and you should be looking for 15-20x.

I just looked at PT stats for pocket pairs where I cold call prelop raises (since 9/1/2005 since that's when I adopted the 10x rule). Out of 35 times, I'm at negative $9. I lost $9 on one hand because I tried a large bluff on a flop and folded to a push. Other than that I'm even. I only hit trips once out of those 35 times and a boat 1 once as well. On those two hands I made $20 at 25NL. Anybody else have a bigger sample size for the 10x rule? George?

Here are my stats over 34,000 hands (the bb/100 are all rounded):

AA; Net = $715, BB/100 = 9
KK; Net = $671, BB/100 = 8
QQ; Net = $380, BB/100 = 4
JJ; Net = -$100, BB/100 = -1
TT; Net = $100, BB/100 = 2
99; Net = $234, BB/100 = 3
88; Net = $54, BB/100 = 1
77; Net = $154, BB/100 = 2
66; Net = $86, BB/100 = 1
55; Net = -$150, BB/100 = -2
44; Net = $146, BB/100 = 2
33; Net = $136, BB/100 = 2
22; Net = -$30, BB/100 = -.5

So from my sample, I am generally making a profit on almost all of my PPs. The JJ is a bit unfortunate as I've had a few really bad beats there. My general strategy is to use the 10% rule in EP and call raises and raise in LP to increase my fold equity and get paid off when i hit the set...

Edit: sample size is now 34,000 and also the limits these are for; 6,000 hands are from 50NL and the rest are 25NL...

Can you just take the ones below JJ where you cold call a raise preflop? Easy in PT.

Sure thing. All hands are only those that have been cold called to a preflop raise. Couldn't figure out how to get the bb/100 hands for just cold calls?

22 - Net; $18
33 - Net; $18
44 - Net; $114
55 - Net; -$57
66 - Net; $20
77 - Net; $12
88 - Net; $13
99 - Net; $12
TT - Net; $30

Interesting, I've never actually looked at the figures like that. The profit isn't as great as I thought it would be (at least I'm making a profit on all PPs except one though).
HOWEVER, I don't think my sample size for cold calls is great enough because when I first started playin (say for the first 12-15,000 hands) I would ONLY limp PPs below 9, and would always fold to a raise, so I guess these figures could be greater over a larger sample size...

Another interesting stat that I looked up after seeing these figures; when I raise any PP in late position, I am nearly always in the green...(once again, I didn't used to raise these up the first 12-15,000 hands)

I think reads are pretty important here, but if you think you can destack somebody if you hit a set, then the 10% rule is a great way to go imho

Thanks renegaderob1. That's very helpful information. I was pondering whether I should raise every hand I play if nobody raises before me. Raise everything - PPs, AK,AQ,AJ,KQ (maybe others in LP) to 6xbb. Currently, I'm usually raising all but 22-TT (and I raise JJ in LP only). But, I'm getting lots of folds when I raise AA/KK. Probably just a streak, but it's hurting my profits. Maybe, more raises will devalue my raises in the eyes of my opponents and when I do hit trips, the pot is higher and I may be more likely to get their stack easier. This is just something I've been thinking about.

Originally Posted by r8ed

I think the lower the pocker pair, the more likely you are to destack somebody when you hit your set. You think they are scared to see a 2 or 3 hit the board? It won't even cross their mind. I don't know why people think 22 is any different than 99 if and ONLY IF you are playing your pocket pair against a raise for a set. You check/fold them all when you miss your set.

The only difference between playing 22 or 99 for a set is that if you hit a set with 22 any other set beats you, If you hit it a set w/ 99 you can destack any lower set also.

Originally Posted by STIdrivr

Originally Posted by r8ed

I think the lower the pocker pair, the more likely you are to destack somebody when you hit your set. You think they are scared to see a 2 or 3 hit the board? It won't even cross their mind. I don't know why people think 22 is any different than 99 if and ONLY IF you are playing your pocket pair against a raise for a set. You check/fold them all when you miss your set.

The only difference between playing 22 or 99 for a set is that if you hit a set with 22 any other set beats you, If you hit it a set w/ 99 you can destack any lower set also.

Two things:
1. Set over set occurs very infrequently.
2. Not many people are raising with 88 or less. Some do, but it's not happening much.

This is why I don't make much distinction in regards to set it or forget it.

Originally Posted by r8ed

1. Set over set occurs very infrequently.

Throw in boat over boat and consider that when you lose these it's going to be very expensive. 77 is a better hand than 22.

I had 22 yesterday and the raise was $1. I called. Guy after me reraises to $2.50. The original raiser called. I don't remember exactly but I think their stacks were 10x the bet but it was close. I folded. Should I have?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by r8ed

1. Set over set occurs very infrequently.

Throw in boat over boat and consider that when you lose these it's going to be very expensive. 77 is a better hand than 22.

No doubt, but you would still pay off a larger boat...surely you're not folding boat with 22 unless you're 100% sure you're facing a larger boat??
Push with any boat has to be +EV no? (At least PT is telling me i've made a net profit of over $1300 with boats)

Originally Posted by r8ed

I had 22 yesterday and the raise was $1. I called. Guy after me reraises to $2.50. The original raiser called. I don't remember exactly but I think their stacks were 10x the bet but it was close. I folded. Should I have?

Was your stack 10x the bet? Seems at least one of these guys likes their hand so the next question is; do you think you could get 10x the initial bet? If so then I would call for the set.

Originally Posted by renegaderob1

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by r8ed

1. Set over set occurs very infrequently.

Throw in boat over boat and consider that when you lose these it's going to be very expensive. 77 is a better hand than 22.

No doubt, but you would still pay off a larger boat...surely you're not folding boat with 22 unless you're 100% sure you're facing a larger boat??
Push with any boat has to be +EV no? (At least PT is telling me i've made a net profit of over $1300 with boats)

If you make a boat with 22, you are going to be paying off a higher boat the vast majority of the time. Even if you are playing a PP for nothing other then set value, the higher the PP, the better. If the flop comes down 3 5 7, and your opponent is holding 55, you take his stack holding 77, and he takes your stack if you are holding 33. There are other reasons such as winning a hand unimproved, straight value, flush value, etc., but in practice, 66 is more profitable then 22 because of set over set/boat over boat hands.

Back to your question about making a boat with 22. Are you going to be paying off a higher boat? More then likely. Not always though, it really depends on how the hand played out, reads on your opponent, etc.

Let's say a tight player raises UTG to 3xBB. Reads: he will raise AQ, AK, QQ-AA UTG only, limps AJs and all other PP's. You call in MP with 22. You and UTG both have deep stacks, 200+BB. Button calls behind. Blinds fold. Flop: AK2, 2 suited. UTG 2/3 pot. You triple his bet. Button folds. UTG Smooth calls. Possible hands for UTG: AA, KK, AK, MAYBE AQ, but he likely folds this here. He's a rock. Turn: K, does not bring the flush. UTG bets half the pot, you again triple his raise. UTG pushes all in.
You hold 2's full of K's but in a situation like this, it should be an easy fold. Granted, it's not often (very rare) where you are going to find out that your boat isn't good and aren't pot committed.

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Originally Posted by Ripptyde

The odds of two players flopping a set each holding pocket pairs is barely over 1%....take your medicine if you lose to a higher set. Flopping a set is hands down the most profitable hand in NLHE which is why you should call even hefty pre flop raises with ALL pocket pairs provided they arent more than 12.5% of your stack.

I have to disagree with this one. Assuming you are playing your baby PP's for strictly set value, calling off 1/8th of your stack is definately -EV. If you hit your set 1/8 times, you would theoretically break even if you had the best hand AND took your opponent's stack every time. Flopped sets will win you a ton of pots, big and small, and lose some huge ones to higher sets, straights, flushes, etc. Then there those very frustrating hands where your set doesn't get paid off. You can't be calling off 1/8th of your stack to try to hit a set to destack your opponent.. especially HU. In the right situation.. IE multiway pot with some maniacs, maybe.

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

on another note...I see a lot of posters talking about 'reads' on their opponent. I think this kind of thinking is highly overrrated. I mean how many thousands and thousands of players are there online at any given time ?....you are constantly getting moved and playing different buy ins....I mean a handful of players I see on a semi regular basis but all in all you are playing against fresh faces all the time...how can you possibly make accurate 'reads' on what your opponents might or might not be playing let alone raising with.

I agree with you to an extent. Above^^ I made a post detailing specific reads and how somebody is going to play certain hands. You are very rarely, if ever, going to have that kind of a pinpoint read on somebody. However, even if you just play with somebody for a few orbits, you can't say that you don't notice some tendancies and pick up some reads on your opponents. How many flops are they seeing? Are they raising preflop, limping, calling raises? What about the flop.. are they folding to bets, raising with position, smooth calling? Ditto with the turn.. they raised on the flop, did they fire again on the turn, or take a free card? Bet the river for value or check behind? Showdown weak or strong?

If you are playing with somebody, you are getting information about their play whether you choose to use it or not. Look at something we all take for granted.. the rock of gibraltar raises to 8xBB from UTG. Simple reads should tell you.. AK, QQ, KK, AA. I play in live games with my buddies who think KTo is a premium and happily raise it UTG in an 8 handed game. I reraise behind them with AA/KK and I can usually get them all-in by the turn if they flop top pair. They double up off me if they catch a set, I take their stack if they hit top pair. Seriously.

I tend to think that in an online game where you don't see your opponent, and your rarely play with the same one consistently, you can make good informed decisions off information you can imply based on how they have played for the time you have seen them. You may see me at one online table with a PFR <10% playing nothing but PP's and strong aces. The next day I may be raising 64o from the CO on a consistent basis and take somebody's stack with a straight. In either case, players are going to have reads on me based on how I'm playing at the time..

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

The odds of two players flopping a set each holding pocket pairs is barely over 1%....take your medicine if you lose to a higher set. Flopping a set is hands down the most profitable hand in NLHE which is why you should call even hefty pre flop raises with ALL pocket pairs provided they arent more than 12.5% of your stack.

I cant tell you how many times I called a big raise with ducks and hit my set only to have player 1 pump all in on what looked like a rag flop. God damn... hitting your set is the best feeling aint it ?

CALL THAT RAISE WITH DEUCES !!!

Agreed. Although 12.5% of your stack is a bit high... (10% is where I call it quits).

And yes, hitting the set is one of the best feelings, especially if you know the other person is married to their hand

Originally Posted by Lukie

Ripptyde wrote:
on another note...I see a lot of posters talking about 'reads' on their opponent. I think this kind of thinking is highly overrrated. I mean how many thousands and thousands of players are there online at any given time ?....you are constantly getting moved and playing different buy ins....I mean a handful of players I see on a semi regular basis but all in all you are playing against fresh faces all the time...how can you possibly make accurate 'reads' on what your opponents might or might not be playing let alone raising with.


I agree with you to an extent. Above^^ I made a post detailing specific reads and how somebody is going to play certain hands. You are very rarely, if ever, going to have that kind of a pinpoint read on somebody. However, even if you just play with somebody for a few orbits, you can't say that you don't notice some tendancies and pick up some reads on your opponents. How many flops are they seeing? Are they raising preflop, limping, calling raises? What about the flop.. are they folding to bets, raising with position, smooth calling? Ditto with the turn.. they raised on the flop, did they fire again on the turn, or take a free card? Bet the river for value or check behind? Showdown weak or strong?

If you are playing with somebody, you are getting information about their play whether you choose to use it or not. Look at something we all take for granted.. the rock of gibraltar raises to 8xBB from UTG. Simple reads should tell you.. AK, QQ, KK, AA. I play in live games with my buddies who think KTo is a premium and happily raise it UTG in an 8 handed game. I reraise behind them with AA/KK and I can usually get them all-in by the turn if they flop top pair. They double up off me if they catch a set, I take their stack if they hit top pair. Seriously.

I tend to think that in an online game where you don't see your opponent, and your rarely play with the same one consistently, you can make good informed decisions off information you can imply based on how they have played for the time you have seen them. You may see me at one online table with a PFR <10% playing nothing but PP's and strong aces. The next day I may be raising 64o from the CO on a consistent basis and take somebody's stack with a straight. In either case, players are going to have reads on me based on how I'm playing at the time.

Also agreed. Surely you use the information you get about players to your advantage rippy; in your SNG/MTT strategy (which I love btw), you say to lay into people and steal blinds to build your stack up: isn't this a great time to have a few reads (eg. is player 2 more of a pushover than player 1? If so, then why not reraise player 2 more often than 1 to get some extra chips rather than risk player1 coming over the top of you when you are holding junk and forcing your hand?)...

I agree with you to a point in that cards, position and stack are more important; however using the information you get from being observant adds to your ability to win in the long run...[/quote]

I think renegaderob1's stats show that this is a profitable situation if you play like him, which I think is how I try to play them. He's probably looking to get out when he doesn't hit a set on the flop. It's not huge profit, but it's undeniably positive. His stats would include losing to the flushes, straights, higher sets and boats.

How many hands do you play that have positive results better than these over a large sample of hands? Probably not too many outside of the higher pocket pairs.

I''m still trying to determine if I should have made that call with ducks. My stack was high enough and at least one of theirs was - maybe both but not by much. I don't like having two people in at that point. Too much can go wrong even if I hit. Could be contradicting myself a little, but when in doubt, I'm going to wait for a better spot.

Originally Posted by Lukie

If you make a boat with 22, you are going to be paying off a higher boat the vast majority of the time. Even if you are playing a PP for nothing other then set value, the higher the PP, the better. If the flop comes down 3 5 7, and your opponent is holding 55, you take his stack holding 77, and he takes your stack if you are holding 33.

you're generally right, but let's not go overboard or oversimplify. 55 will make more profit than 44, because of these rare spots. but, these are rare spots. you will not be paying off a higher boat the "vast majority" of the time. it will happen extremely rarely. but, the fact that it happens sometimes bumps the EV up a little bit the higher your pair is.

Originally Posted by Greedo017

Originally Posted by Lukie

If you make a boat with 22, you are going to be paying off a higher boat the vast majority of the time. Even if you are playing a PP for nothing other then set value, the higher the PP, the better. If the flop comes down 3 5 7, and your opponent is holding 55, you take his stack holding 77, and he takes your stack if you are holding 33.

you're generally right, but let's not go overboard or oversimplify. 55 will make more profit than 44, because of these rare spots. but, these are rare spots. you will not be paying off a higher boat the "vast majority" of the time. it will happen extremely rarely. but, the fact that it happens sometimes bumps the EV up a little bit the higher your pair is.

I guess I should have been more clear. I agree with you. What I meant about paying off a higher boat the "vast majority" of the time is that, if you make a boat, and your opponent makes a higher boat, you are going to be paying him off the vast majority of the time. I did not mean to imply that this happens often if that is what anybody thought. Same with the PP's. 55 is a better hand then 44, however slightly. Obviously the bigger the gap, the more difference there is. 77>66>55>44, etc.

Originally Posted by r8ed

I think renegaderob1's stats show that this is a profitable situation if you play like him, which I think is how I try to play them. He's probably looking to get out when he doesn't hit a set on the flop. It's not huge profit, but it's undeniably positive. His stats would include losing to the flushes, straights, higher sets and boats.

Yep, if I don't flop the set, I'm out of there to any agression, unless I was the preflop raiser (in which case I try to take the pot by cont. betting or reraising a weak bet).
I'm very interested to see this over a larger sample, so maybe when I get another 15,000 hands in my database I can evaluate my play again...

Originally Posted by r8ed

How many hands do you play that have positive results better than these over a large sample of hands? Probably not too many outside of the higher pocket pairs.

AKo is the only non-pp in my top 10 most profitible hands (this includes AA,KK,QQ)

Originally Posted by r8ed

I''m still trying to determine if I should have made that call with ducks. My stack was high enough and at least one of theirs was - maybe both but not by much. I don't like having two people in at that point.

I prefer 2 people in the pot; my implied odds are better if the board is not too scary...

Originally Posted by r8ed

Too much can go wrong even if I hit. Could be contradicting myself a little, but when in doubt, I'm going to wait for a better spot.

Fair enough; I don't play hands I'm not comfortable in either, theres heaps more opportunities to come

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

I see a lot of posters talking about 'reads' on their opponent. I think this kind of thinking is highly overrrated.

I find this very surprising comming from a LHE hater. Where do you think your edges come from in these games? How long does it take to figure out what someone's up to? How do you feel out another hand without multiple rounds of betting? Do you think this holds true as you move up? Finally, wouldn't reads be MORE important for a player that plays lots of hands aggressivly and hence tends to find himself in difficult spots in raised pots more often?

My return to the NLHE games has had me thinking about this for a while. I'll probably fire up a post on it later tonight.

If the stacks are deep enough, they're always worth a flop.

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Originally Posted by Ripptyde

on another note...I see a lot of posters talking about 'reads' on their opponent. I think this kind of thinking is highly overrrated.

If you're saying that people need to balance they're reads with other aspects of the game, I agree. But it the way you say it in your post does not come across that way initially.

Calling a pre flop raise with a pocket pair is a winning strat in the long term for ring games as well. Either flop a set or get out is key tho I think.

I've got about 160,000 hands in my poker tracker database and all of my pocket pairs are showing a profit..from 10/10 all the way down to 2/2

Against Pokerstars weak players I have a hard time getting paid decently when I flop a set. I would say I see showdown maybe 30% of the time I flop a set. In that scenario one can’t call 10% of their stack off to try and flop a set because it wouldn’t be profitable. I go with about half (5% of stack PF) that but that may be going too high also. The other guy has to have something better than TPTK to call off his stack.