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Folding nut flush at the river

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  1. #9
    Just a quick thought on the maths of this, if we can discount A2/67 and 33 from his river shoving range, which I think is reasonable, then he can have 13 boat combos that beat us, and 36 flush combos that we beat. Given that he doesn't check-shove his really weak flush combos very often (even if he's a complete fish) we can probably halve that and say he has about the same number of combos that we beat as he has combos which beat us.

    So on that basis, we could call given the price we get, but I still don't think we can call, since I think he probably doesn't check-shove the river with a lot of the medium-strength flushes.

    On the flip side of this coin, does he really check the river with his full houses that often, and risk us checking behind? I guess if he's the slowplay-everything fish sort, perhaps he does.

    Mathematically, what price _would_ you want to look him up here? Would you do it for 4:1, 5:1?
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 06-16-2012 at 09:41 PM.

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