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Folded Second Set...What's my equity?

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  1. #1

    Default Folded Second Set...What's my equity?

    Ok so this hand came up at the local Horseshoe yesterday. 1/3 NL. I raise to 11 from EP with JJ. Tight, very aggressive villain makes it 30 from MP. I call, flop comes AJ3 all hearts. I check, he bets 50. I figure he's either got...AA, KK with Kh, or AK with Kh. Maybe even AQ with Qh tho whether he'd reraise me with AQo is questionable. Anyways I raise to 125, he immediately shoves. He then declares that he has three Aces. I ask him if he really does. He says yes, shows me them. I fold of course. I had about 90 more and I think he thought I was on a draw and didn't want to gamble with me.

    I was thinking about folding anyways because I really thought he had AA. He saved me the trouble though thankfully. I was wondering if someone could help me figure my equity against his range to see if a fold would have been a decent play had I not seen his cards? Thanks.
  2. #2
    All in, cmon dude you really gonna fold middle set at a casino? If he has a flush you have redraws...If he has AA just spike runner runner hearts for the chop. Snap motha fuckin calllllll.
    Flopping quads and boats like its my job
  3. #3
    You folded w/$90 in a $400 plus pot w/redraws and possibly the best hand. Why would he tell you something to get you to fold? All in all day. I beat him to the middle. He has AK with a heart and needs the fold.
  4. #4
    Well the thing is I KNEW without a doubt he didnt have a flush there's just no way he woulda reraised me with 2 hearts without the Ace he was too tight for that.
  5. #5
    Halv's Avatar
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    No hindsight for the blind.
    When he SHOWS the aces it is a clear fold, we have 6% equity and need 18% or so.

    If he doesn't show them, however, it is an instacall. Even if his range is tight enough to only include AA and AK w/ king of hearts we've got more than enough equity:
    Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
    17,820 evaluations, 18 hole card combos

    Board: Ah Jh 3h

    Wins Ties Equity
    36.82% 1.14% 37.95% ( JJ )
    60.91% 1.14% 62.05% ( AA, KhA )

    Throw in KK with a heart and we're just shy of a coinflip:
    Board: Ah Jh 3h

    Wins Ties Equity
    46.13% 0.76% 46.89% ( JJ )
    52.36% 0.76% 53.11% ( AA, KhA, KhK )

    If he plays AxQh like this 50% of the time we're a slight favorite:
    Board: Ah Jh 3h

    Wins Ties Equity
    49.44% 0.65% 50.09% ( JJ )
    49.26% 0.65% 49.91% ( AA, KhA, KhK, QhA(50) )
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
    All in all day. I beat him to the middle. He has AK with a heart and needs the fold.
    OH REALLY
  7. #7
    all in weeeeeeeee
  8. #8
    so did he really show you 3 aces during the hand? if so why are ppl saying to call?
    Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.

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