Fold quad aces to possible straight flush?

From CardPlayer Magazine:

http://cardplayer.com/poker_magazine...707&m_id=65561

Originally Posted by CardPlayer

When you bet in no-limit, you must consider how deep you are and how deep your opponent is. Let’s say you have the :Ac::Ad: and raise the $10 big blind to $50 and get called by only the big blind. The flop comes a glorious :Ah::As: and you obviously check. The turn is the and the big blind bets $200. If you have only $500 left, it is OK to slow-play and just call here. But if you and your opponent each have $12,000, you really should consider raising.

If the river brings the , , or , you no longer have the nuts. The big blind could have a straight flush, and considering the play of the hand, he very well might. If you have $12,000, just called the $200 turn, and the river does make a straight flush, you have to be very careful. If he bets $2,000, you can’t raise him! If he checks the river, you bet $600, and he raises to $12,000, you should seriously consider folding.

Would anyone ever actually fold here?

Looks like he hit his flush to me. I don't have that kind of cash so I fold like a cheap suit, but at my stakes I want a re-raise with quad Aces. I'd put as many chips in as possible in this spot.

No, you don't consider folding here EVER.

Let me explain. He is talking about implied odds. Specifically 40 to 1. These odds are not even in favor of the straightflush. If you have 12k in front of you and you are playing 10$ BB, then i think we aready have our problem.

This is one of those situations that only applies to big stakes players. With twelve thousand dollars on the line I might actually fold. Those are some deep stacks and why would your opponent bet that much if he only has a full house or a flush when he knows you might have the four of a kind with your pre-flop raise and that board with two aces. It's hard to imagine a situation where you would fold four aces but this might be it.

Another important question is how big is the bad beat pot.

A

Originally Posted by Lucid

This is one of those situations that only applies to big stakes players. With twelve thousand dollars on the line I might actually fold. Those are some deep stacks and why would your opponent bet that much if he only has a full house or a flush when he knows you might have the four of a kind with your pre-flop raise and that board with two aces. It's hard to imagine a situation where you would fold four aces but this might be it.

No way. He is putting you on trip aces (AK, AQ, AJ) and hit the flush - so you call any raise he wants to put out there. If he hit a one in a zillion runner-runner gutshot straight flush, then he's basically won the poker lottery.

In addition, we're also supposed to believe here that he's got 3s4s, 3s5s, or 4s5s (depending which card landed on the river) - and that's what he called a 4xBB raise with? Maybe - maybe if it's Ripptyde - but probably he's got two face cards, one or both a high spade, and he's real happy to make his second best hand.

It would be different if the turn was the 5s and the river was either the 3 or 4. Then it's a one card straight flush possibility, and you're justifiably nervous. It would be even more dangerous if the other cards out there were high cards - a board like this: Ah As Qs Js Ts. That's just ugliness in its purest form, and arguably you have to fold to that. But in this example the guy has to use both of his hole cards to make a better hand, and they both have to be specific low spades? I just don't see it. Call every time.

Quad aces and considering a fold?

I Cant believe what im reading

I think part of the key here is that there are not nearly as many stupid players at that level of stakes that would go all-in thinking they have the nuts with a flush or a full-house. If you were an expert cash-ring player would you go all-in with an Ace-high flush with two aces showing and a tight player who raised pre-flop. Would you risk 12k to find out if your twos full of aces was still good. There is an equal chance that somebody has the 34 of spades as two aces after the cards are on the board. A strait flush is no longer extremely rare after you factor in the fact that 3 of the cards needed are on the board. After this board shows up four aces vs a strait flush is no longer a one in a million situation.

But I also think that people make more plays and big bluffs at the higher stakes. At $1/$2 NL the chance of a bluff here might be 5-10%, but at the higher levels I think it must be much higher, maybe 20% or more.

If a good player knows you will fold any non-nut hand to a big bet, he can make big bets here all day long.

Originally Posted by Lucid

I think part of the key here is that there are not nearly as many stupid players at that level of stakes that would go all-in thinking they have the nuts with a flush or a full-house. If you were an expert cash-ring player would you go all-in with an Ace-high flush with two aces showing and a tight player who raised pre-flop. Would you risk 12k to find out if your twos full of aces was still good. There is an equal chance that somebody has the 34 of spades as two aces after the cards are on the board. A strait flush is no longer extremely rare after you factor in the fact that 3 of the cards needed are on the board. After this board shows up four aces vs a strait flush is no longer a one in a million situation.

I can only put it like this: there can be three of any suit on the board in close proximity, even Tx Jx Qx... and if I have quads, my opponent is going to have to show me that Kx Ax before I believe that I'm beat. It's that simple. In this case I'm calling any bet he makes on the river. It's just too improbable to me, one that he would hit the hand in the first place at the same time I hit the quads, and two that he would call a raise with what was very obviously a real piece of crap before the flop. This is even more true if the 4 comes down and I'm supposed to put him on 5s 3s... suited cards that low that don't even connect? He'd have to be one of the loosest players on earth to make that call.

Also I don't believe he'd push in that massive amount of money with a straight flush. Most players want to get paid off for good hands; he's putting me in a situation where I want to fold anything that's not at least a full house. Why play it that way? Unless he's a poker genius and somehow knows I hit quads, he's playing the hand in a very stupid fashion. Trip aces won't call him here because the flush is so obvious, and trip aces are the most likely holding of a player who raises pre-flop and then transparently slows down on a flop of AA2.

if you are so short in your bankroll that you are ever under any circumstances folding quad aces then you have risk management issues.

Originally Posted by Greedo017

if you are so short in your bankroll that you are ever under any circumstances folding quad aces then you have risk management issues.

The only circumstance in my mind is pretty much this one: you raise pre-flop, a guy re-raises you pretty big, you re-raise him, he calls. The flop comes A A Q, then the turn and river are the J and T putting four to the royal on the board. You start betting on the end and he raises you very big... thermonuclear mushroom cloud big. At that point, it is as close to reasonable as it would ever be to fold the quads. There's every reason to put him on pocket kings and imagine him having the straight flush.

Most any other circumstance... don't be a wiener. If you're one of the very unlucky souls this happens to, then at least you'll have a great story for www.riveredagain.com, and maybe a consolation bad beat jackpot.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

This is even more true if the 4 comes down and I'm supposed to put him on 5s 3s... suited cards that low that don't even connect? He'd have to be one of the loosest players on earth to make that call.

Its not that improbable when you are talking about the enormous implied odds that comes with stacks that deep. Plus, in high stakes games players don't follow strict sklansky rules. Sometimes they raise with 56o to steal pots. It says that only the big blind calls so if you were in late position the big blind might have though it was an attempted steal.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Also I don't believe he'd push in that massive amount of money with a straight flush. Most players want to get paid off for good hands; he's putting me in a situation where I want to fold anything that's not at least a full house. Why play it that way? Unless he's a poker genius and somehow knows I hit quads, he's playing the hand in a very stupid fashion. Trip aces won't call him here because the flush is so obvious, and trip aces are the most likely holding of a player who raises pre-flop and then transparently slows down on a flop of AA2.

Sometimes when I'm playing and I get the absolute nuts on the river and there is almost no money in the pot I will go all-in. Instead of trying to win another 50 cents I will bet 50 dollars because I only need to be called like one out of 100 times to make it worth it.

We're on different poker planets, my man. I understand what you're saying but there is just no effing way I'm not calling there. No way. Unless he flips both cards over and shows them to me, that's a call. I may not raise him all in, but I'm calling any bet he throws out.

call me crazy but i'll go broke with quad aces any day in my life.

If you fold you're ineligible for the bad beat jackpot. So those implied odds are (usually) about 43,000 to one.

There is no way on God's green earth that I ever, ever EVER fold quad Aces, especially if two of them are IN MY HAND.

I don't care if he friggin' SHOWS me the straight flush before he bets. If that happens, I go and find the tourney director and tell him to come watch this hand, 'cause I want that abd beat jackpot. :P

No. No. and No again.
I will NOT fold quad aces.

Originally Posted by jmontis

call me crazy but i'll go broke with quad aces any day in my life.

Crazy!

Easy fold.

Why this question is silly:

This situation is going to come around once a life time. It doesn't matter if you choose right or wrong.

Enjoy whatever decision you make.

End of thread.

-'rilla

you guys should read the post again...he's not saying fold quad aces if bet into, this hand basically demonstrates how a worse hand won't pay you off if you raise, and you will be in a tough spot if you get 3 bet on river, especially given such deep stacks.

a thinking player won't pay you off more with their "flush" because they know their bet clearly represents a flush and that you won't raise him w/o FH or better on the river.

That's pretty silly. You should consider raising with quads on the turn just because your opponent might have a straight flush draw? Give me a break.

There is no chance I would ever fold quads under any circumstance, even with a four card straight flush on the board. If my opponent is showing strength a four card straight flush on the board and I have quads, I would consider it more likely he simply had a full than a straight flush and put all my money in the pot.

It looks like they didn't have too much to write about that day. Next week it will say "Quad Kings and SB points a gun at you...fold?"

if i had 12,000 at the table with me, the stakes im playing at, im going to be properly bankrolled for that level.. with that said, im all in, if he turns over a straight flush, that is just really bad luck, but since i was properly bankrolled, i only lost a small part of my bankroll.. rebuy and keep playing.

edit: i might fear gus hansens 8 of diamonds and 4 of spades hand he plays alot, but its not going to be likely.





if i was really drunk, made 12k on the small limits tables, and took my winnnings and played at the ultra high limits with my 12k in winnings, i'll lay this down because this is my new poker bankroll and im playing scared.

Originally Posted by hagakure

It looks like they didn't have too much to write about that day. Next week it will say "Quad Kings and SB points a gun at you...fold?"

This fold seems +EV to me ... at least for the pot sizes we're talking about.

No

Originally Posted by Zangief

Originally Posted by hagakure

It looks like they didn't have too much to write about that day. Next week it will say "Quad Kings and SB points a gun at you...fold?"

This fold seems +EV to me ... at least for the pot sizes we're talking about.

its only +EV when he has the straight flush.. im going to say your going to win with quad aces the majority of the time this comes up on the board

Originally Posted by Element187

Originally Posted by Zangief

Originally Posted by hagakure

It looks like they didn't have too much to write about that day. Next week it will say "Quad Kings and SB points a gun at you...fold?"

This fold seems +EV to me ... at least for the pot sizes we're talking about.

its only +EV when he has the straight flush.. im going to say your going to win with quad aces the majority of the time this comes up on the board

Ummm ... I meant the expected value of living past the hand was worth more to me than winning the pot and taking a bullet. Did you read hagakure's post?

Originally Posted by Zangief

Originally Posted by Element187

Originally Posted by Zangief

Originally Posted by hagakure

It looks like they didn't have too much to write about that day. Next week it will say "Quad Kings and SB points a gun at you...fold?"

This fold seems +EV to me ... at least for the pot sizes we're talking about.

its only +EV when he has the straight flush.. im going to say your going to win with quad aces the majority of the time this comes up on the board

Ummm ... I meant the expected value of living past the hand was worth more to me than winning the pot and taking a bullet. Did you read hagakure's post?

right, but the majority of the time your taking this pot down, you will win more then what you lost in that one hand

Originally Posted by Element187

Originally Posted by Zangief

Originally Posted by Element187

Originally Posted by Zangief

Originally Posted by hagakure

It looks like they didn't have too much to write about that day. Next week it will say "Quad Kings and SB points a gun at you...fold?"

This fold seems +EV to me ... at least for the pot sizes we're talking about.

its only +EV when he has the straight flush.. im going to say your going to win with quad aces the majority of the time this comes up on the board

Ummm ... I meant the expected value of living past the hand was worth more to me than winning the pot and taking a bullet. Did you read hagakure's post?

right, but the majority of the time your taking this pot down, you will win more then what you lost in that one hand

God, I hate when a joke has to be explained multiple times. But you still don't get it.

Option 1: Fold and LIVE.
Option 2: Call and possibly DIE FROM A GUNSHOT.

I choose Option 1 unless the pot is very, very big.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

That's pretty silly. You should consider raising with quads on the turn just because your opponent might have a straight flush draw? Give me a break.

There is no chance I would ever fold quads under any circumstance, even with a four card straight flush on the board. If my opponent is showing strength with both a four card straight flush on the board and I have quads, I would consider it more likely he simply had a full than a straight flush and put all my money in the pot.

I admit that this example is overkilled a bit rather, but what's important is that you gasp the concept of not raising when a reraise will make you puke, or your raise will only get called by a better hand.

One point i'd like to make here is why would someone call a pre-flop raise with low-suited connector?
Surely it's safe to assume they called with something like Kx suited hoping to hit the flush? Therefore there's no chance i'd be folding!

Anyone's opinions on this theory?

Originally Posted by holdem_newbie

One point i'd like to make here is why would someone call a pre-flop raise with low-suited connector?
Surely it's safe to assume they called with something like Kx suited hoping to hit the flush? Therefore there's no chance i'd be folding!

Anyone's opinions on this theory?

A lot of times when I use the "He needs to have XX in his hand to beat me, there's no way he called that with XX" theory they have the exact hand that I thought they wouldnt call, or something close enough to it to still hurt. That's my very low limit experience talking, so I wouldnt know about the higher limits, but I have seen that it's pretty much possible for anyone to call with anything at anytime.

Originally Posted by AllinLife

Originally Posted by dsaxton

That's pretty silly. You should consider raising with quads on the turn just because your opponent might have a straight flush draw? Give me a break.

There is no chance I would ever fold quads under any circumstance, even with a four card straight flush on the board. If my opponent is showing strength with both a four card straight flush on the board and I have quads, I would consider it more likely he simply had a full than a straight flush and put all my money in the pot.

I admit that this example is overkilled a bit rather, but what's important is that you gasp the concept of not raising when a reraise will make you puke, or your raise will only get called by a better hand.

you pop a 2k raise on the river, he reraises you all in ... looks like a bluff and trying to represent the straight flush ... call him and take his money.

Originally Posted by holdem_newbie

One point i'd like to make here is why would someone call a pre-flop raise with low-suited connector?
Surely it's safe to assume they called with something like Kx suited hoping to hit the flush? Therefore there's no chance i'd be folding!

Anyone's opinions on this theory?

read super system ... doyle made his living by calling preflop raises with suited connectors and one gappers.

so you raise a big bet pre-flop you get called ur holding AA. if you get called after betting 4,5x the big blind you have to put on opponent on either KK, AK, or QQ JJ. now if the flop comes how you explained in your post, do not hesitate to call no opponent is calling a big bet with 3s4s. (unless ur playin with gus hansen) ha jk. but if the flop comes AAsJs and the turn is a 10s, river Qs... well now you might be in some trouble, if this situation should ever miraclously come up which it probably won't. then that and only that could be the only possible reason for you to lay that hand down. other then that, i'm sittin pretty on AA, with a flop of AA2.

Originally Posted by holdem_newbie

One point i'd like to make here is why would someone call a pre-flop raise with low-suited connector?

Because it's $50 to call and you have $12K in your stack: implied odds.

The important question is: what does he have that he can call a flop or turn bet with? You have both remaining A's, so he must be on a pocket pair (maybe he's got a boat?), a flush draw, or a straight draw. He'll be giving you credit for at least one A, most likely.

With a paired board, flushes and straights will be reluctant to get it all in. A full house (22 or 66) will be interested in protecting against another 2, 6, or card that might give Ax a boat.

'rilla is right. This particular decision is irrelevant in the big scheme of things.

No reason in the world I can think of to lay down four aces. If you fold there, quit poker.

Originally Posted by hagakure

It looks like they didn't have too much to write about that day. Next week it will say "Quad Kings and SB points a gun at you...fold?"

hahahahha

should this even be debated, who is going to fold with Quad As, only way I would is if I was shown the fucking straight flush... other then that I’m probably pushing here... (If you at a bad beat table you get paid the fuck off anyways)...

WTF is cardplayer fucking thinking here?

Originally Posted by Zangief

I choose Option 1 unless the pot is very, very big.

new Best Line Ever on FTR

Oh by the way AllInLife is right, this is a study hand, not one you're going to encounter. And the thing to study is the turn action: Ultradeep stacks make it poor to continue slowplaying on the turn unless you will definitely still be holding the nuts at the river.

Also, think about the river bet if one of those bad cards comes. It's not "how damn unlikely is it to get beat with quads?" It's "What would a straight-flush bet here?" (Hint: not 12,000) The bad news is a straight-flush would bet about the same about as the nut flush, or a boat.

The good news is it's not your salary for the year. So if you don't mind being ribbed a bit about assuming you're beat even when it's unlikely, you save a few bucks by just calling a midsize bet there.

Well that's wierd. I could have sworn I ended this thread 10 replies ago..

-'rilla

If i don't fold a fullhouse to it then i don't think i'd fold quads to it....Btw i knew i was beat here, but because the pot was so huge i was drawing to (well drawing dead to) the fullhouse here. When it happened i started wondering why the money was heading his was and i thought the software was broken haha. However this isn't quite the same as that hand cause the stacks aren't even close to as deep.

POKERSTARS GAME #1705053652: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/05/15 - 20:07:40 (ET)
Table 'Mirphak' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: eagleclaw7 ($40 in chips)
Seat 2: willyjr ($112.45 in chips)
Seat 3: BUBB111 ($108.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Huzz81 ($97.80 in chips)
Seat 5: jsim1020 ($27 in chips)
Seat 6: hank987 ($204.50 in chips)
Seat 7: digman ($16.10 in chips)
Seat 9: Bmxicle ($101.30 in chips)
BUBB111: posts small blind $0.50
Huzz81: posts big blind $1
eagleclaw7: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bmxicle [Tc 9c]
jsim1020: calls $1
hank987: calls $1
digman: calls $1
Bmxicle: calls $1
eagleclaw7: checks
willyjr: calls $1
BUBB111: calls $0.50
Huzz81: checks
*** FLOP *** [Qs 9h Th]
BUBB111: checks
Huzz81: checks
jsim1020: checks
hank987: bets $6
digman: calls $6
Bmxicle: calls $6
eagleclaw7: folds
willyjr: folds
BUBB111: folds
Huzz81: folds
jsim1020: folds
*** TURN *** [Qs 9h Th] [8h]
hank987: bets $11
digman: calls $9.10 and is all-in
Bmxicle: calls $11
*** RIVER *** [Qs 9h Th 8h] [9s]
hank987: bets $26
Bmxicle: raises $57.30 to $83.30 and is all-in
hank987: calls $57.30
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bmxicle: shows [Tc 9c] (a full house, Nines full of Tens)
hank987: shows [Qh Jh] (a straight flush, Eight to Queen)
hank987 collected $170 from side pot
digman: mucks hand
hank987 collected $50.70 from main pot
Huzz81 said, "damn"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $223.70 Main pot $50.70. Side pot $170. | Rake $3
Board [Qs 9h Th 8h 9s]
Seat 1: eagleclaw7 folded on the Flop
Seat 2: willyjr (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: BUBB111 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Huzz81 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: jsim1020 folded on the Flop
Seat 6: hank987 showed [Qh Jh] and won ($220.70) with a straight flush, Eight to Queen
Seat 7: digman mucked [7h 4h]
Seat 9: Bmxicle showed [Tc 9c] and lost with a full house, Nines full of Tens

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

There is no way on God's green earth that I ever, ever EVER fold quad Aces, especially if two of them are IN MY HAND.

I think that quads is the only hand where having only one of them in your hand is a benefit. Chances are, you will be up against a full house or two, which means lots of chips.