Fold KK pre?

Vllain has just joined the table, stats are 9,3,32.

Is this an occasion where I should drop KK after the reraise? WIth those stats, I'm guessing he has AA or KK. Do you think AK or QQ are playing that way with those stats?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10.07)
MP1 ($7.79)
MP2 ($10.65)
MP3 ($6.03)
CO ($10.81)
Button ($11.71)
Hero (SB) ($4.88)
BB ($5.39)
UTG ($7.58)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
4 folds, MP3 bets $0.20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.55, [color=#CC3333]MP3 raises to $4.75, Hero?????

Do you have any reads on him from previous hands?

I'm not the most qualified to comment, but I personally wouldn't read too heavily into stats like that after only a few hands.

You should think about that before you 3-bet preflop. As played it's probably time to get it in.

Short stackers are often prone to push fold poker with varying degrees of tightness involved. Since you just joined you don't really have much of a read but a reasonably tagg but not exceptionally nitty push fold short stacker may be shoving with 99 or TT+ as well as AK

Pot is 5.63 you are calling 4.28. thus your pot odds are 1.32 or 43% equity against kk+,ak you have 47% equity. Easy call when you considered that unknowns can do this with qqs and even aq sometimes.

There is less than a 4% chance of someone having AA when you have KK on a FR table. 20% of those 4% times, you will win anyways.. so why bother ever even thinking of folding?

Originally Posted by Outlaw

There is less than a 4% chance of someone having AA when you have KK on a FR table.

That's a fairly irrelevant stat that says nothing about ranges derived from reads.

but yeah, call obv

Never fold KK preflop. but I wouldn't really suggest going all in till you have a good read on your opponent.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

There is less than a 4% chance of someone having AA when you have KK on a FR table. 20% of those 4% times, you will win anyways.. so why bother ever even thinking of folding?

Just because I like interjecting random math into things whenever I get the chance, let's say we're facing 8 opponents. There are 50 cards left in the deck so there are 1225 ways to be dealt a hand and 6 of those are AA. So the chance of one opponent not being dealt AA is 1219/1225 and the chance of 8 opponents not being dealt AA is around (1219/1225)^8 = 0.9615. So there's about a 3.852% chance, which means you're right.

A lot of nitty people 3-bet and 4-bet with the exact same hands that they raise with. Meaning if his pfr is 3 then his 3-betting and 4-betting range is gonna be 3 percent aswell.

Originally Posted by dafu

Never fold KK preflop. but I wouldn't really suggest going all in till you have a good read on your opponent.

wat

i wouldn't start folding KK preflop until i get to like 100NL or something...

Originally Posted by DanAronG

Vllain has just joined the table, stats are 9,3,32.

you have a rough idea of what sample size is necessary for those numbers to be reliable or useful?

I have found it useful to develop rule of thumb cutoffs with various premium hands. My PF cutoff w KK is 3/4 of a buy in. Thus, I'd be willing to double up your villian opp if he is lucky enough to have AA. I'd probably go all in.

If he only has AA here then it's a fold, however add in any other hand in his range then it's a clear call - even with AA being a big part of his range. Just a note - I've seen people squeeze like this with all types of hands and while I wouldn't be surprised to see AA here obv, I wouldn't be surprised to see AK or QQ either (and random bluffs vs some villains).

The pot is $6.17 and we have to call $4.15 so we need 40% equity to call. Against {AA,AK} vs {KK} we have 47% equity so against this range, it's a clear call. If he does this with any more hands in his range, you should snap call at a cat-like speed.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

There is less than a 4% chance of someone having AA when you have KK on a FR table. 20% of those 4% times, you will win anyways.. so why bother ever even thinking of folding?

You can throw the 4% number out the window based on playing conditions. A very, very, large three bet puts the conditional probability at many multiples of that figure.

I would estimate that 90-95% of the time the range is JJ to AK. I'd leave another 5-10% or so for a player who has lost his mind. I do NOT believe that JJ to AK are equally likely based on their random distributions. I would tilt the probabilities toward the higher end given the play of the hand.

It might be tempting to assign probabilities based on the number of combinations that can be dealt.


AK 8 combinations (two K's mssing)
AA 6 combinations
KK 1 combination
QQ 6 combinations
JJ 6 combinations

6 /27 = 22% likelihood of AA

Even based on the above reasoning 4% is clearly wrong. Furthermore, I believe that the above STILL underestimates the AA probability. I believe that the probability distribution above is WRONG. The play of the hand requires giving a greater weight to AA and a lesser weight to JJ based on the PLAY of the hand....IOW one should take into account conditional probability.

To elaborate, the thinking is that we might occasionally find that someone plays JJ or AK this way but we would also expect that a rational player would call very often. We would EXPECT (rationally) a player w AA to play exactly this way, in other words to re-raise. I would roughly double the 22% probability above and call it 30-40%.

ffs get it in and move onto the next hand. Decisions with Kk for 100bbs preflop are trivial i.e you dont fold.

When you get to 200bbs deep then their is a discussion to have. Also, so much math in this thread for a 'OMG fold KK preflop HH'

Im pretty sure you're ability to move up and beat the game is pretty much not effected by whether you can fold KK to AA preflop enough. At worst KK vs AA is 'meh' and at best a trivial get it in choice

Originally Posted by shallam

Originally Posted by Outlaw

There is less than a 4% chance of someone having AA when you have KK on a FR table. 20% of those 4% times, you will win anyways.. so why bother ever even thinking of folding?

You can throw the 4% number out the window based on playing conditions. A very, very, large three bet puts the conditional probability at many multiples of that figure.

I would estimate that 90-95% of the time the range is JJ to AK. I'd leave another 5-10% or so for a player who has lost his mind. I do NOT believe that JJ to AK are equally likely based on their random distributions. I would tilt the probabilities toward the higher end given the play of the hand.

It might be tempting to assign probabilities based on the number of combinations that can be dealt.


AK 8 combinations (two K's mssing)
AA 6 combinations
KK 1 combination
QQ 6 combinations
JJ 6 combinations

6 /27 = 22% likelihood of AA

Even based on the above reasoning 4% is clearly wrong. Furthermore, I believe that the above STILL underestimates the AA probability. I believe that the probability distribution above is WRONG. The play of the hand requires giving a greater weight to AA and a lesser weight to JJ based on the PLAY of the hand....IOW one should take into account conditional probability.

To elaborate, the thinking is that we might occasionally find that someone plays JJ or AK this way but we would also expect that a rational player would call very often. We would EXPECT (rationally) a player w AA to play exactly this way, in other words to re-raise. I would roughly double the 22% probability above and call it 30-40%.

You math people drive me nuts sometimes. The simple fact is, never fold KK preflop. Even if you are sleeping with the guy and he whispered a sweet nothing in your ear that he only plays suited aces.

I only threw the <4% number out there to show how improbable it is that you are against AA. The only reason people think it happens a lot is that we play 24 tables at once and it happens every other day.

By the way, putting people on exact ranges and making plays because "there's no way that guy could have that hand, its not in his range" will eventually get you broke really quick. It works in reverse also. These are human beings, there is ALWAYS a change they are just making a play, or bluffing, or whatever.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

These are human beings, there is ALWAYS a chance they are just making a play, or bluffing, or whatever.

This is why it's so hard to ONLY put him on Aces. I used some simple equity calculations on whether to call all-in. It's rather trivial sure but backing up my words with statistical reasoning just goes to show how retarded folding KK pre for <100bb really is.

Shallam's probability post, while well thought out and explained, made me throw up a little.

/ thread

I'm not sure if folks noticed, but in my earlier post I did recommend going with the hand. Also in that post, while worded differently, I mentioned that I cannot fold KK for less than 150 BB. Above 150 I *might* be able to fold the hand.

So the point of my likelihood of AA post was NOT to support folding. Instead, it was to correct what I percieved to be error in thinking about the probability of AA. Two very different issues. Please don't confuse them. Thanks.

There is a time and place to fold KK preflop, but this is not it.

lol, so many responses itt.

He got AA or he is retarded.
He pushed 4 blinds and you 3bet him.
I would not push all in without aces in this situation.
fold

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Originally Posted by dafu

Never fold KK preflop. but I wouldn't really suggest going all in till you have a good read on your opponent.

wat

Lol don't mind me

Originally Posted by ljove

He got AA or he is retarded.
He pushed 4 blinds and you 3bet him.
I would not push all in without aces in this situation.
fold

are you beating 2nl yet?

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

There is a time and place to fold KK preflop, but this is not it.

This

/ thread

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

This post sucks and I'm a fish.

Just thought I'd share

{locked} due to the bombardment of retarded posts.