fold AA?

I took this scenario right out of a book and I gave it to a friend. We both really disagree on what to do. i'm interested in your guys' input.
Here is the scenario:

Your in a huge tournament and have made the final table. The blinds are at 5,000/10,000 (this is no limit). Your opponents each have 490,000 before putting in their blinds. (so they have the exact same amount.) you on the other hand have done horribly and have only 30,000. you are in the big blind.

the player on the button goes all in and the other player calls all in.

you look at your hand and see AA.

do you fold? I do.

here is my reasoning: unless they both have the same exact hand, one is probably going to eliminate the other. If you call and lose, you get third. if you call and win you triple up to 90,000 but are against a gigantic stack of 890,000 and are pretty much gauranteed second.

Either you risk losing and getting third or you triple up and most likely get second. If you fold, you don't risk losing and will most likely win second.

my friend believes in gambling. through a program we have found that pocket aces average about an 80 percent chance of victory against most hands, none below a 75 percent chance.
given this he believe that if he calls, then he has an 80 percent chance to tripple his chances at getting first place. given the odds of winning are lower he still believes that trippleing his chances would be worth the 20 percent chance that he would only get third.

what do you guys think?

what's the difference in payouts?

'Cause I'm not sure I WANT to play for second...

yeah it all depends on the different payouts, unless you dont care about the money and only want the title, then you call.

I call.

This is from Sklansky's book if I'm not mistaken.

And the payout is huge btw 2nd and third and third to forth (big tourney, final table). In order to fold AA, it is said you have very very very little chance to move up even if you triple up or so. So folding would be correct unless if your entire goal is to win the tournament and that's all you want.

Another scenario would be if you're in a satellite that pays top 9. Ten ppl left and you have third in chips. Tenth place goes all in, first place reraises all in. Then you can fold.

Off topic completely but this just happend 2 minutes ago... 4 ppl left in SnG. First place had like 9k, second had 2.5k me and other guy had under 500. and second place calls big stacks RR AI q/ AQ (big stack had AK)!!! So us 500 chip stacks moved up. Bwahahaha. I ended up second because I had like 100 more chips than the other guy and when it was HU it was something like 12k to 200... I asked if he wanted to chop but he said no. :P

your friend is making a bad assumption

"then he has an 80 percent chance to triple his chances at getting first place"

Does he really think that a 90K stack vs an 820 stack is 3 times more likely to win than a 30k stack vs an 880 stack, with 10k blinds? i doubt it. let's even say it was. your odds are are tripling from what, 1% to 3%? sorry, i'll leave that huge 2% edge i'm gaining and take a guaranteed second place. 30k is push or fold just as 80k is. an 80k stack could only see like 5 more hands before it was blinded away anyway.

and, it would have to be a very large difference between 2nd and 3rd. if it wasn't huge i'd go ahead and call because even though you'd be nervous about it, they are aces.

If you think about this in terms of EV, it looks like you'd be better off to fold.

Assumptions:
Payout is like the 2004 WSOP: $5,000,000 for 1st, $3,500,000 for 2nd, and $2,500,000 for 3rd.

Players A and B each have 490,000 (48.51% of the chips), You have 30,000 (2.97%).

Your skill level is similar to the others, so your chance of winning the tournament is equal to the percentage of chips you have. This can be argued I guess. If you all have the same number of chips, this assumption says you have an equal chance of winning. If you're a stronger player, however, you'd have a better chance of winning. But, given this situation with your short stack and the blinds, you're going to have to get lucky which reduces your ability to use your skill.

If you fold, you'll be heads up:
You lose your BB and have 20,000 (1.98% of the chips), and your opponent will have 98.02% of the chips.
Your EV is (.0198 * $5M) + (.9802 * $3.5M) = $3.529M

If you call and win, you'll be heads up:
You'll have 90,000 (8.91% of the chips), and your opponent will have 91.09% of the chips.
Your EV is (.0891 * $5M) + (.9109 * $3.5M) = $3.633M

If you call and lose, you'll be out:
Your EV is $2.5M

If your AA holds up 80% of the time:
Your EV if you call is (.8 * $3.633M) + (.2 * $2.5M) = $3.407M

$3.529M > $3.407M, so you're better off (from a long term EV perspective anyway!) to fold.

Bottom line.

You're a millionaire!

-'rilla

im folding that too thinkin about it like that

ok, using that as an example, the way i think about it is: I am giving up a 100% chance at 1 million dollars. Just say that. Have someone ask you, would you like a 100% chance at making 1 million dollars? then answer, naaah that's ok i'm fine.

This is settled poker. Move on, nothing to see here...

call his a.ss!

Originally Posted by Fnord

This is settled poker. Move on, nothing to see here...

I don't agree

If you call you have a chance of tripling up and having another player get knocked out since their stack sizes are the same. I call here unless the payouts are way way top heavy and I was sure I couldn't do better than 2nd place.

Hello everyone. I'm a long time lurker, first time poster.

According to the card calculator at pocketfives.com, AA will only win 73.66% of the time against two opponents. Even if you win, you are still a huge underdog to place 1st. Why take the risk when 2nd place is virtually guaranteed?

I'd see his bet, and then raise him the rest of my chips just trying to win the pot right there.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I'd see his bet, and then raise him the rest of my chips just trying to win the pot right there.

Two opponents are already all in, your the shortstack. Unless you have been hiding chips, you're going all in too.

-Chris

Originally Posted by Sykedupp

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I'd see his bet, and then raise him the rest of my chips just trying to win the pot right there.

Two opponents are already all in, your the shortstack. Unless you have been hiding chips, you're going all in too.

-Chris

Yeah, I was being sarcastic.