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 Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Originally Posted by thestrokes
ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right...
What? These numbers don't make any sense at all. With two suited pocket cards, there are 11 remaining cards of the appropriate suit left in the deck with 50 unseen cards before the flop. Since one of these has to fall, followed by another, followed by another, the probability is 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48.
Those numbers do make sense. He was working out the probability of flopping a straight flush, not just a flush. Why it worked out to be higher than the percent someone listed, I don't know (except that perhaps someone didn't figure things right when coming up with that ratio).
- Jeffrey
Actually, the numbers still make no sense. In order to find the probability of flopping a straight flush, you need to know how closely connected your cards are, and also their rank. This would tell you how many sets of 3 connected and suited cards will give you a straight flush, and then you have to find how many different ways each of these sets of 3 cards can flop. It's not as simple as just multiplying three numbers together and getting the answer.
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