seems you got an interesting point here crazy.

it is true that the 1st bet when considered a semi-bluff is +ev in the case it is either called or opposition folds. it is +ev even for 0 fold probability.

but... opposition may also raise! now how to factor that into the ev equation of a semibluff? standard way of calculating ev for a semibluff only takes into account equity for fold- and call-cases.

i am at a loss here myself, but will do some thinking on it since it is indeed a very interesting point. seems you need to expand the standard semibluff equation (fold equity + call equity) by a third term for raise equity. i.e.: fold equity + call equity + raise equity. this should prove quite difficult to formulate because you would have to factor in many different possible raise sizes with respective raise probabilities. actually i am guessing you would need quite complex mathematics to write something like this down. my guess is you would have to form an equation describing the relation between all possible raise sizes and corresponding probabilities. then do some integration on that. whatever? maybe one of the math wizzes around this forum could help with that one?

2nd bet of course is clearly +ev.

cheers