Flush draw

This has happened a several times recently and I wanted to get your thoughts.

Loose $25 NL table.
50-60% see flop %, passive table.

Hand 1.
I am in late position with 54s. Everyone limps as do I. 8-10 people see the flop. Flop brings a flush draw in my suit but is otherwise all low cards (without giving me a straight draw). Someone EP throws out 1bb and everyone calls. I figure I have mother loving pot equity so I raise it up to pot or 2/3 pot…$1-$1.50. Everyone calls. Sweet, look at that pot build. Turn is a card, no flush. It is checked to me and I throw out the same pot building bet $1-$1.50. River completes the flush and someone in EP comes out firing a ¼ to ½ pot bet. I may be overflushed but I figure it is worth a call. He shows his Axs and takes it down.

Hand 2, same situation.
I am in late position with 7s6s. Everyone limps as do I. 8-10 people see the flop. Flop brings 5s8sKc. Sweet jesus. I have an OESD straight flush draw. Someone EP throws out 1bb and everyone calls. I figure I have mother loving pot equity so I raise it up to pot or 2/3 pot…$1-$1.50. Everyone calls. Turn is a card, no flush. It is checked to me and I throw out the same pot building bet $1-$1.50. River completes the flush with As and someone in EP comes out firing a ¼ to ½ pot bet. I may be overflushed but I figure it is worth a call. He shows his Kxs and takes it down.

I am not crystal clear on the river action here [either hand]. With a flush I may have raised it up and gotten callers as I figure any flush is decently strong. Reguardless, my question is about how I handled these situations. I figure I have two ways I can play it, build the pot and hope there is no higher flush or get aggressive and try and take down the pot with aggression. If I get aggressive I stand to lose a bunch from Axs or Kxs because I don’t think I can push them out with my aggression. Do you agree with my pot building play here or would you get aggressive with it?

On the second hand, I do think I could have gotten aggressive with it. If that straight flush completes I am taking Axs or Kxs for his stack.

Finally, assuming I hold bottom suited cards like 53s (lowest I play), what are the odds of one of the 9 ring players holding two same suited cards when a flush draw (my/our suit) flops?

Betting the turn in both hands is pretty bad. Take the card you paid for.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Betting the turn in both hands is pretty bad. Take the card you paid for.

But I have 8 callers. Assuming I am the only flush draw I have pot equity in excess of my 1/8th share. Right?

I would also like to see the odds or number of times one flush loses to another... I don't think it happens often enough for me to be too scared of it... unless someone really overbets /re-raises the river, I almost always call with any flush (only 3 on board).

On the first hand, I like the pot building bet on the flop, but I would usually take the free card on the turn and see the river for as cheap as possible, since the odds of catching the flush are now cut in half.

On the second hand, if the pot is large enough, I bet / re-raise larger on the flop, and may try to be more aggressive with this hand. I feel very confident with a OESFD (maybe too confident sometimes) but this is where I like to flex my semi-bluffing muscle.

8-10 people seeing the flop, is this a live game? I don't think straight up aggression will win you too many pots in these situations. No need to lose chips you don't have to.... I played in a live game like this a couple of times recently, and every raise / bet was for value and to build the pot, never to scare anyone off. If there are that many callers, then chances are you can't get all of them to fold anyway.

Oh, and the lowest SC's that I play are 56s

Originally Posted by Fnord

Betting the turn in both hands is pretty bad. Take the card you paid for.

I am running a pokerstove simulation but it is going to take all day to complete.
So I'll try and use logic. Chances of completing my draw are 20% so I own exactly 20% of the pot, right? On the turn, if I get 4+ callers then I own more of the pot than I put into it. Is my thinking flawed?

As far as what the odds are of having another person on the flush draw is…still working on it.

Originally Posted by EricE

I am running a pokerstove simulation but it is going to take all day to complete.

Monte Carlo for a couple minutes when you have wide ranges.

Originally Posted by EricE

So I'll try and use logic. Chances of completing my draw are 20% so I own exactly 20% of the pot, right? On the turn, if I get 4+ callers then I own more of the pot than I put into it. Is my thinking flawed?

You're assuming lots of callers with only 1 more card to come and would really hate for someone to raise and turn a very profitable situation into a very marginal one.

Originally Posted by Fnord

You're assuming lots of callers with only 1 more card to come and would really hate for someone to raise and turn a very profitable situation into a very marginal one.

Fair enough and point taken. In these two hands the turn went perfectly. Everyone called, creating a really nice pot I wish I could have taken down. Hehe. With 8 callers, even a min raise (I suspect) is not going to chase off enough people to ruin my pot equity.

No the minraise wont chase them off but it might be raised behind and force you to fold/ call for much worse pot odds.

If you are potting the flop for value and getting 4+ callers then how much aggression is it exactly that you think will make them all fold. If 4 of them are calling the pot then probably at least 1 of them will want to call an allin. I dont think any amount of aggression is taking it down.


I dont mind betting though and if you are coming to the river with the lowest flush and losing less than a pot size bet on the river i dont think thats too bad.

I think Fnord said it pretty well. I'll just add my $0.02. I'm not sure what the numbers run on pokerstoke and what not, but I really think this is -EV play. First of all, I don't like the flop raise. You are semibluffing into 8-10 other people, and odds are one of them has a hand and won't fold, especially at 25NL. But I guess it's understandable since you have position. Anyway, on the turn, I think you are practically spewing chips here. Effectively what you are doing is putting money in the pot against what, 6-8 people, with probably the worst hand (5 high) with close to zero folding equity, all this while being a significant underdog to any made hand. Then I think the worst part is the river. You finally hit your draw, then you just call??? If you're going to go through the trouble of semibluffing and building the pot and what not, you have to be willing to take your hand to the felt should you hit your draw. I mean if you sense someone is on a higher draw, then why continue putting money in the pot on the flop and turn?

For the second hand I like raising the flop bigger, say $3. Depending on how many callers this gets, I would re-evaluate on the turn if I missed my draw.

Also, at the top of your post you said this was a loose table, which I'm guessing means lots of calling stations. So the general rule of thumb is to not bluff or semibluff loose calling stations, because they will not fold their TPNK. I would try to draw as cheaply as possible against these people. Just make a hand, then get the money in.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Also, at the top of your post you said this was a loose table, which I'm guessing means lots of calling stations. So the general rule of thumb is to not bluff or semibluff loose calling stations, because they will not fold their TPNK.

Reread the thread again. What you are missing is that my bets on the flop and turn are NOT semi bluffs…not in the sense that I want anyone to fold. I want them all to call. They are pot building bets because I own more than 1/8th of that pot but I only have to put in exactly 1/8th of the money. Every call into that pot is making me money. It’s a concept from limit holdem that applies here.

I can’t put anyone on a higher flush draw till the flush hits (wouldn’t it be sweet if you could). So once the flush hits I begin to suspect a higher flush is out there. Reguardless, I am playing it fairly strong…bet wise. It just so happens that I lost these hands to higher flushes but that wouldn’t normally be the case.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

I would try to draw as cheaply as possible against these people. Just make a hand, then get the money in.

This is exactly what I normally do at these passive/fishy tables. This situation is different since I have > pot equity than the $ I am putting in.

Originally Posted by EricE

Every call into that pot is making me money. It’s a concept from limit holdem that applies here.

Agreed... and it isnt a terrible play on the flop. However a big difference between Limit and NL is that in Limit you have to start building a pot early because you are very likely to just get calls and thats only 2BB per person. In NL you can almost wait to see if the draw comes and then duck out if it doesnt or bet as much as you want if it does come and probably get a reasonable number of callers.
I think the flop bet is fine because you are building a pot that you are going to win often enough to justify it. If the flush comes on the turn you have 2 rounds of betting for people to call and they probably will.
On the turn if you are stil lwaiting for a flush i think you should check behind. This is partly because you are being offered a free card and definatly dont want to be check/raised, but it is also because you can see if the draw comes on the river and still bet into the pot (which is already large) and get callers.
Unlike Limit, when the draw comes you can often overbet and stil get callers so when you win you wont win quite as much but when you lose you will lose ALOT less.

I hope this makes sense. I kinda wrote it out as i was thinking it so it might be utter rubbish

If anyone knows how to calculate the odds of someone having another flush draw along with me (same suit) please help out. I can calculate the odds of somebody having a suit card but I can’t figure out how to put two in their hand together.

Originally Posted by EricE

Finally, assuming I hold bottom suited cards like 53s (lowest I play), what are the odds of one of the 9 ring players holding two same suited cards when a flush draw (my/our suit) flops?

The odds are one thing. When u have info (because of your oppenents actions on the hand) it becomes another thing.
When u raise the flop and bet the turn (agree with fnord u must take the free card there) and still get 8 callers as you said what do u think they have? Lets say 3 people have top pair... 2 are idiots with middle pair...2 more idiots with...sets or 2 pair that forgot to raise?
Its kind of inevitable that you are overflushed if u hit a low flush with 8 callers on flop and turn.

Originally Posted by EricE

On the second hand, I do think I could have gotten aggressive with it. If that straight flush completes I am taking Axs or Kxs for his stack.

This is were u NEED to get aggresive. Open end straight/flush draw? You are ahead of all non-set hands (42% chance of outdrawing a set, 49% against 2 pair). Raise it up BIG. You wanna be putting all your money on the flop here most of the times.

Originally Posted by m3laNcholy

This is were u NEED to get aggresive. Open end straight/flush draw? You are ahead of all non-set hands (42% chance of outdrawing a set, 49% against 2 pair). Raise it up BIG. You wanna be putting all your money on the flop here most of the times.

At an aggressive table I would be betting hard. But at these passive tables you can make a hand...THEN get all the money in. It works more often than not. Since that is the case, no need to build the pot until you have a made hand. [Ive already explained why I bet small here so we won't rehash that.]

The thing you forget about the turn Eric, is that each card that drops becomes a potential checkraise. You, being the flop aggressor, become the target of that action. The chance of opponent improvement via the next card increase with each caller. What I'm saying is there's too great a risk that someone feels strong enough to screw with your value plan to make it good to keep betting on the turn.

Uncle…Uncle. I bow to the collective wisdom of the board. Turn play was bad.

If that were only the least of my issues Id be go-to-go.

I like the flop bet and at this limit (where everyone cold calls with crap) and would bet big if they hit the turn I'd still bet the turn anyway building a bigger pot. At higher levels then no chance but here they are all going to call.
You dont have to agree with thi but its obviously a luxury you get at this limit/type of game at this limit.
My problem is that u want to be hlding higher connectors if the whole of this table sucks/loose/is fishy. You were taken by kxs and Axs which is likely considering the numbers in the pot. I think while 76s is a good hand in this scenario you have to consider its worth when u know opps could hold any high card suited (Axs/Kxs/Qxs) even out of position
Ill leave the others to discuss betting the turn but i think hand selection here is important

Originally Posted by EricE

Originally Posted by Fnord

Betting the turn in both hands is pretty bad. Take the card you paid for.

But I have 8 callers. Assuming I am the only flush draw I have pot equity in excess of my 1/8th share. Right?

but the problem is, you have 8 callers. this works against you as well as for you. chances are that somebody else is drawing to a flush b/c they have the mother of all pot equities.

my personal policy is, always bet flush/open ended draws on the flop like i'm holding tp tk--meaning, pot-sized. assuming other players @ the table have an elementary knowledge of pot odds, higher flush draws will drop, leaving me against tptk/trips who will try to "milk" me w/ cold calls or 1/3 pot-sized bets on the turn. if i get minraised, i have the odds to flat call & scare the other person in the hand (am i milking a set?) & see the turn, possibly a free river.

if i get re-raised larger than potsized, the odds aren't there, i know i'm way behind & i get away from the pot.

my most profitable hands so far have been instances where a fish will "value bet" or cold call his top set on an unpaired board w/ two color & then pays me off when the flush comes--ditto open-ended draws. the defining feature of a weak/fishy player is the fact that they can't relate the strength of their hand to the rest of the flop & do silly things like checking tp tk on a a56 board w/ two color on it...

Still working on the odds of us being against another Flush.

5 flush cards out of 13 down accounted for, 8 cards left.
(8/47)*18=3.06 flush cards

I can't get a lock on this but I did find a thread the confirmed there are 3.06 flush cards in my opponents hands.

Can anyone tell me what the odds are of 2 out of 3.06 flush cards being dealt to the same hand (one of the 9 other hands)?

Edit: My best guess is:
There are 3.06 flush cards to be dealt out of 18. After that there are 2.06 cards to be dealt out of 17.

So, 3.06 favorable events out of 18 + 2.06 favorable events out of 17.

OR

3.06/18 + 2.06/17 = .29 or .3% chance of happening.