Quote Originally Posted by Pyroxene
Quote Originally Posted by djzcko
Enough rambling. Can some of you take the time and crunch your set numbers? Took me about 30 minutes to do this....
The odds of flopping EXACTLY trips when holding a pair: 10.775%
The odds of flopping EXACTLY a full house when holding a pair, by tripping your pair and flopping another pair: 0.735%
The odds of flopping EXACTLY four of a kind when holding a pair: 0.245%

Chance of 'tripping' or quading on the flop when holding a pair is: 11.755%

Probability of exactly N successes in M trials with a success likelihood of p is:

((M!)/((N!)*((M-N)!))) * (p^N) * ((1-p) ^(M-N))

Summation of probability of 1 through 117 successes in 1375 trials yields: 0.006%

Correctness test: 1375 * .11755 = 161

Summation of probability of 1 through 161 successes in 1375 trials yields: 49.99% (as expected).

Conclusion: I am tempted to say that luck that bad does not exist (to put it into numbers, 1 person in 16,666 would experience luck this bad). Are you sure of your count? The numbers do not become reasonable until about 130 successes at which point there is a 0.5% chance of someone experience a run that bad or worse.
Yes, I am positive of these numbers. I only crunched them because I knew they HAD to be way below statistical expectation to the point it is almost impossible. 1 in 17k people....hmmm, that actually makes me feel special. BTW, like I mentioned in the post, $50nl is treating me much better. I am flopping my set every 7 PP's. Sure is nice...