Flopping a Set % (Real Data) and Profitability

OK, I have always felt that I hardly ever flop sets like I am suppose to. So I took some time today to review 27k hands of $25nl and figure out my actual %. Here is how I did it:

1. Set my PT filter to "pairs" and write down the # of times each pair has been dealt to me.
2. Subtract out all where I did not see a flop (folded pre-flop...was too lazy to open each one up and see if there was a flop and see if I would have hit my set...should not affect results either way). Had to scan each of the PP detail and count the "folded pre-flop".
3. Subtracted out all of the times where there was no flop (everyone else folded when you raised). You can do this by setting the "pre flop raise action on flop" filter to "folded".

This gave me the number of times I actually saw a flop with a PP. Then, I opened each of the PP's where my hand was either 3 of kind, four of a kind or a full house and noted how many times I flopped a set or four of a kind.

Final results:

27k hands, 1638 times I was dealt PP's (that is almost exactly average BTW) and 1375 times I saw the flop with a PP. And 117 of those I flopped a set or four of a kind. That's 8.5%. That's not anywhere near the norm. I am not a statician, but that is SIGNIFICANTLY below the statisitcal norm for 27k hands. Also, PP's make up 100% of my profit (filter set to PP's only and it almost exactly equals my overall profit). One last interesting note: I have never hit a full house with AA in 31k hands (includes both $25NL and $50NL). Bet you can't beat that luck.

Questions:

1. Is the 8.5% normal for those of you that have a database of 10k or more hands. I have whined about my set-luck in the past but this certainly confirms it if you ask me. Fortunately, I am 11PTBB/100 but if I could hit sets like I am suppose to then I would be closer to 15BB/100. That's 41 sets I've been "robbed" of. I play Pokerroom and Stars BTW (not trying to start another rigged thread...)
2. Are PP's 100% of your profit normal also? What is your ratio and how many hands?
3. The reason I really did this is because I recently moved up to $50nl and it seems like I hit my sets ALL the time. Sure enough, I crunched the numbers (3.5k hands) and I am hitting them 14.6% of the flops which is almost double what I was doing in $25nl. Weird. PP's are 150% of my profit in $50nl. Only two PP's are losers: Yep, you guessed it: AA and KK. Holy crap I can't beleive my luck. KK has run into AA 3x in 3.5k hands. AA either wins the blinds or somebody sucks out on me.

Enough rambling. Can some of you take the time and crunch your set numbers? Took me about 30 minutes to do this....

variance

Originally Posted by djzcko

27k hands, 1638 times I was dealt PP's (that is almost exactly average BTW) and 1375 times I saw the flop with a PP. And 117 of those I flopped a set or four of a kind. That's 8.5%.

and

Originally Posted by djzcko

I recently moved up to $50nl and it seems like I hit my sets ALL the time. Sure enough, I crunched the numbers (3.5k hands) and I am hitting them 14.6% of the flops which is almost double what I was doing in $25nl.

Would lead me to believe that variance and "small" sample size are to blame.

if i could understand how this works id give u a stat from 200k hands but for the life of me i cant figure out how i find out whether i saw a flop with a pp or not

ok so far i have

Total hands (both lhe and NL)
225995
Pocket Pairs
13405 (16.9%)

mine looks low on the flopped sets or better side. Id work out the exacts but i cant figure this

I have a DB of 93k hands and my pp/set ratio is right at 12.5%.

I play 200-400nl and after 16k hands most of my profit comes from AA-QQ, AK and AQ. Some of my PPs are still in the negative, but that is (hopefully) due to the small sample size.

I think that its pretty strange that the odds havent caught up with you over 27k hands yet. I mean, while I wouldnt go calculate your real ptbb/100 with only 27k hands, im supprised it hasn't evened out yet.

I know my sets were looking good this weekend:

KK sacked QQ

99 sacked AQ

and I had two other sets flopped but didn't get paif off though.

Originally Posted by underminedsk

I play 200-400nl and after 16k hands most of my profit comes from AA-QQ, AK and AQ. Some of my PPs are still in the negative, but that is (hopefully) due to the small sample size.

I think that its pretty strange that the odds havent caught up with you over 27k hands yet. I mean, while I wouldnt go calculate your real ptbb/100 with only 27k hands, im supprised it hasn't evened out yet.

Yeah, exactly my point and my question. How the hell do I play 27k hands and only flop a set 1/12 times instead of 1/8? I mean, c'mon. That's gotta be just about statistically impossible. If I am at 1/9 or even 1/10, I can beleive that is normal variance. But 1/12?

Originally Posted by djzcko

Yeah, exactly my point and my question. How the hell do I play 27k hands and only flop a set 1/12 times instead of 1/8? I mean, c'mon. That's gotta be just about statistically impossible. If I am at 1/9 or even 1/10, I can beleive that is normal variance. But 1/12?

27k hands isnt really that big of a sample, if it isnt normal variance, then what is it?

Originally Posted by djzcko

Enough rambling. Can some of you take the time and crunch your set numbers? Took me about 30 minutes to do this....

The odds of flopping EXACTLY trips when holding a pair: 10.775%
The odds of flopping EXACTLY a full house when holding a pair, by tripping your pair and flopping another pair: 0.735%
The odds of flopping EXACTLY four of a kind when holding a pair: 0.245%

Chance of 'tripping' or quading on the flop when holding a pair is: 11.755%

Probability of exactly N successes in M trials with a success likelihood of p is:

((M!)/((N!)*((M-N)!))) * (p^N) * ((1-p) ^(M-N))

Summation of probability of 1 through 117 successes in 1375 trials with a likelihood of .11755 is: 0.006%

Correctness test: 1375 * .11755 = 161

Summation of probability of 1 through 161 successes in 1375 trials with a likelihood of .11755 is: 49.99% (as expected).

Conclusion: I am tempted to say that luck that bad does not exist (to put it into numbers, 1 person in 16,666 would experience luck this bad). Are you sure of your count? The numbers do not become reasonable until about 130 successes at which point there is a 0.5% chance of someone experience a run that bad or worse.

Originally Posted by Pyroxene

Originally Posted by djzcko

Enough rambling. Can some of you take the time and crunch your set numbers? Took me about 30 minutes to do this....

The odds of flopping EXACTLY trips when holding a pair: 10.775%
The odds of flopping EXACTLY a full house when holding a pair, by tripping your pair and flopping another pair: 0.735%
The odds of flopping EXACTLY four of a kind when holding a pair: 0.245%

Chance of 'tripping' or quading on the flop when holding a pair is: 11.755%

Probability of exactly N successes in M trials with a success likelihood of p is:

((M!)/((N!)*((M-N)!))) * (p^N) * ((1-p) ^(M-N))

Summation of probability of 1 through 117 successes in 1375 trials yields: 0.006%

Correctness test: 1375 * .11755 = 161

Summation of probability of 1 through 161 successes in 1375 trials yields: 49.99% (as expected).

Conclusion: I am tempted to say that luck that bad does not exist (to put it into numbers, 1 person in 16,666 would experience luck this bad). Are you sure of your count? The numbers do not become reasonable until about 130 successes at which point there is a 0.5% chance of someone experience a run that bad or worse.

Yes, I am positive of these numbers. I only crunched them because I knew they HAD to be way below statistical expectation to the point it is almost impossible. 1 in 17k people....hmmm, that actually makes me feel special. BTW, like I mentioned in the post, $50nl is treating me much better. I am flopping my set every 7 PP's. Sure is nice...