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Flop straight but possible flush.

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  1. #1
    Moradis's Avatar
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    Default Flop straight but possible flush.

    The villain is 50/40 agg fact 1.8 and freq 46%. Nothing major noted so far, I've seen him raise to isolate another on the table several times & showdown has been weak holdings. He's been somewhat of a calling station

    I thought about isolating him but the blinds are reg nits & so I wasn't worried they'd try a steal - if they 3 bet I can get out cheap. This guy likes to see flops only 10% or so fold to 3bet. I figure the hand could flop well & I have position with deep stacks. Not worth isolating.

    $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

    BB: $13.20
    UTG: $10.00
    MP: $4.85
    CO: $25.00
    Hero (BTN): $22.89
    SB: $11.72

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has T J

    fold, MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold

    Flop: ($1.05, 3 players) 8 7 9
    MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets $1.05, fold, CO calls $1.05

    Good flop but a possible flush draw or straight draw. I want to charge him. I bet pot size. Should I have gone higher? Villain had tended to call c/bets - actually he's a bit of a station. I can't really range him yet, he's flat called. I know the flops either connected or a draw, but straight or flush?

    Turn: ($3.15, 2 players) 3
    CO checks, Hero bets $3.15, CO calls $3.15

    His call worries me but not particularly. Again, he could be on TP or 2 pair or still have a straight draw. Made the flush?

    River: ($9.45, 2 players) A
    CO bets $4.72, Hero ???

    Oh boy... he could have anything from his A making 2 pair or the flush. He has taken the initiative and I feel beat. It smells like a value bet but could be Ax 2 pair and he might think I missed a straight.

    Is it time to lay down? I can't see how I can reraise, the only thing calling is either a flush, a high straight may but probably not a low straight. Am I right to give up the hand?

    Comments on play appreciated as always.
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  2. #2
    laggfish are way too unpredictable to put him on only a flush here, just call.
  3. #3
    With the stack sizes involved here I don't think a pot size bet is enough to make them pay for the third spade, 2-1 odds which is about equal to the chances of villain hitting on either the turn or the river. That said the pot size has been kept to a good size up to the river.

    A9, A7, A8 AJ all within their range; they may believe they are value betting 88, 77. The flat call pre-flop eliminates 99+ I would think 3-1 odds + the amount of hands they have you beat = Call. But not too happy about it.
  4. #4
    I'd raise, he has two pair or AT a lot and almost never has a flush.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  5. #5
    Call. We only need 25% equity to make the call and there's no way we're under 25% equity here against this particular villain.
  6. #6
    rpm's Avatar
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    maaaaaaaaaaate
    i'd call
  7. #7
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    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    call cos reads + pot odds and you're easily good 25%
    don't raise ever.
  8. #8
    Id prolly raise
  9. #9
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    I'm all-in.

    edit: because fish don't block bet fold
    Last edited by Icanhastreebet; 09-01-2011 at 08:17 PM.
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