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flop set. raised turn by nit

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  1. #1
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    Default flop set. raised turn by nit

    opp 9/7 AFq 73 over 345 hands

    his preflop range is: 56s+,79s+, A2s+, A9o+, suited/unsuited broadways, 22+

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    SB ($4.68)
    Hero (BB) ($10)
    UTG ($10.44)
    UTG+1 ($8.15)
    MP1 ($7.75)
    MP2 ($14.91)
    MP3 ($7.90)
    CO ($14.18)
    Button ($12.05)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
    6 folds, Button bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.65) , , (2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets $0.47, Hero calls $0.47

    i didnt bet the flop because i knew he cbets 100% when checked to, i first wanted to c/r but i didnt because then i wanted to keep his range as wide as possible.

    after talking in IRC with the guys, i realized that betting the flop and c/r are a lot better then c/c , since there are a lot of worse hands then mine that call here. so my first mistake is c/c the flop. i should have bet/3bet ( if case) and get all in on flop

    Turn: ($1.59) (2 players)
    Hero bets $1.06, Button raises to $3.60,

    when he raises me, my only options as i see them in my opinion are folding or shoving. i rule out calling since there a lot of scary river cards for me( hearts, spades, K, J) and if any of them comes w/ me OOP i really would be in a weird spot that i rather evoid by shoving or folding turn.

    folding also seem very very nitty so i made the next analyze:

    pot is already 1,59+1,06+3,60=6,25 and i have left 8,17 ; so i shove and he calls my pot odds will be 8,17/(6,25+8,17+8,17)=8,17/22,59= 36% pot odds.

    my range for him to raise turn and call my shove is AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ. i can add some more combos,the first range i thought he does this was AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ,AT, KQss,QJss,JTss,89ss,AKhh,AJhh,89hh but this is the tightest range i think he raises and calls a turn shove.

    vs this range i have 43,71% equity and with 36% pot odds i find this a +EV shove.

    my question for you is:

    is my range ok for him raising and calling a turn shove or he has a tighter range for playing a turn like this?
    Last edited by Razvan729; 03-27-2011 at 09:36 AM.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...

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