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  1. #1
    daviddem's Avatar
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    OK sorry I had not seen the range in the OP.

    What on earth makes you think that this guy 3b AJs but not AKo??

    Anyway, you have 48% against AJs+,TT+.
    Against AcKc,AcQc,AcJc,TT+, which he continues with when you bet or check raise, you have 41.6%.
    He folds non club AJs+, that is 9 combos out of 42, that is 21.4%

    So here we go, let's say you check, he bets $0.7 and you raise all in to $4.37.

    risk = $4.37 - 0.416*$9.71 = $0.33

    And you need him to fold more than risk/(risk+pot) for your semibluff to be profitable:
    0.33/(0.33+1.67)=16.5%.

    Since he folds 21.4% of his range, the semi-bluff is profitable.

    So you can check raise, even if his range absurdly included AJs and not AKo., and you can check raise even more profitably if AKo is in his range.

    Why would you ever want to c/f when he bets when you have 48% equity against his betting range and there is a bunch of money in the pot already?

    I don't ever b/f. If I bet and he shoves with his AcKc,AcQc,AcJc,TT+, it's and obvious call as you should know (do the math).

    c/c sucks. I don't c/c.

    check-shove for the win imo
    Last edited by daviddem; 03-22-2011 at 10:25 AM.
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