flop OESD+FD

opp stats: 26/18 AFq 85% over 278 hands, 3bet 26% in MP, from what i seen him play his 3bet range pre is AJs+,TT+

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($4.82)
CO ($5)
Button ($13.34)
SB ($1.79)
BB ($5.80)
Hero (UTG) ($6.82)
UTG+1 ($2)
MP1 ($1.82)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9
Hero bets $0.17, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.45, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.28

Flop: ($0.97) 7, 6, 8 (2 players)
Hero ?!

if i check, he is going to bet all his preflop range.

if i bet: he folds air w/o club in hand

he's calling any overpair w/o club and any air w/club he has.

he raises me on flushes and any overpair w/club

best play for hero?

what is his overall 3b % pre? "26% from MP" means nothing, the sample size is not big enough

put him on a range

depends on his range, but at a glance check raise looks like a decent option

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

431,500,608 games 0.379 secs 1,138,524,031 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.587% 71.38% 00.21% 308008800 890694.00 { TT+, AJs+ }
Hand 1: 28.413% 28.21% 00.21% 121710420 890694.00 { 99 }


So why are you playing with ~29% equity OOP with a hand that usually flops extremely poorly?

I think he pretty much has odds to set mine here, at 5NL, against an opp this aggressive, even if he is OOP.

But that's also why I asked about the 3b%.

i called just to set mine, i had 15:1 implied odds when calling pre.

on the flop i am confused on how to play.

c/r is not an option since i only fold worse hands then mine. i only have c/f or c/c, but i cant decide between them.

i tend to c/f since the only outs that give me nuts on turn are 5/T. a club or a 9 i am not sure if i have the best hand.

You only fold worse hands but according to what you say he also calls with a ton of worse hands. Since you said he always bets when you check, this is how you get the most money even if he folds when you raise.

Put him on on goddamn ranges for each option and Stove equities. How can you even think of c/f this FFS???

i gave you ranges once, gonna make them again, in hands so that you can see them better.

preflop: AJs+, TT+ thats = 42 combos

if i check he bets all of its range and i have 30% to river, and just ~ 15% chances to hit on turn.

if i bet he folds non club air so thats just 9 combos ( AJdd+, AJss+, AJhh+ ), that means he folds just 20% of his range; and calls any overpair w/o club and that 15 combos 35% of his range ; he raises me on flushes 3 combos and any overpair with club and thats 18 combos 45% of his range.

so, after this, do you b/f or c/c? what do you do on a blank turn, c/f?

OK sorry I had not seen the range in the OP.

What on earth makes you think that this guy 3b AJs but not AKo??

Anyway, you have 48% against AJs+,TT+.
Against AcKc,AcQc,AcJc,TT+, which he continues with when you bet or check raise, you have 41.6%.
He folds non club AJs+, that is 9 combos out of 42, that is 21.4%

So here we go, let's say you check, he bets $0.7 and you raise all in to $4.37.

risk = $4.37 - 0.416*$9.71 = $0.33

And you need him to fold more than risk/(risk+pot) for your semibluff to be profitable:
0.33/(0.33+1.67)=16.5%.

Since he folds 21.4% of his range, the semi-bluff is profitable.

So you can check raise, even if his range absurdly included AJs and not AKo., and you can check raise even more profitably if AKo is in his range.

Why would you ever want to c/f when he bets when you have 48% equity against his betting range and there is a bunch of money in the pot already?

I don't ever b/f. If I bet and he shoves with his AcKc,AcQc,AcJc,TT+, it's and obvious call as you should know (do the math).

c/c sucks. I don't c/c.

check-shove for the win imo

forgot AKo, not that he doesnt 3 bet it just forgot it

You are fucking awful at poker if you ever consider folding an OESFD OTF by c/f'ing.

Bet/3bet and c/r both are extremely viable options. Get the money in ASAP.

our equity isn't all that great against hands willing to stick 90bbs in on this flop

ofc there are hands like AcKx and such we're pretty much flipping with and other hands like red AhAd we're probably a 2:1 favorite against, so I'd have to run calcs to see exactly what I think of this spot.

i may be awful, i admit that and that i still have a lot to learn, this why i post , so that i can get good advices and repare my mistakes in analyzing and thinking hands

A player 3 betting 26% is not going to be able to stack off on this flop a lot. Razvan try to think more in terms of your equity and your fold equity against villains range. It seems you are worried about folding out worse hands and only getting called by better with a check raise however, I think you have mis-applied that concept here. Typically you want to reserve this type of thinking for spots where you are either way ahead or way behind villains range. This is not one of those times.

In this instance we are either slightly ahead or slightly behind. Any turn card can kill our hand and most of the time we will be guessing at turn and river spots if we decide to check call this flop. It is true that when we check raise and get called, we will usually be up against a better hand but we can still expect to have around 40% equity (give or take) when we get all in.

In addition to our equity, we also have our fold equity. Villain will fold to this check raise a certain % of the time (especially given his high 3 bet stat) and we will win the pot right there. The times that he folds will offset any slight equity disadvantage we may have when called, and this move becomes +EV.

You might be leaking in similar situations by calling down too much in spots where you should be raising and taking down the pot.

Razvan please read this article from ISF when you get a chance.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...on-150176.html

I also wanted to point out that calling a 3 bet just to set mine is not a good idea vs someone who probably has a widish 3 betting range. The reason for this is that you are going to fold the best hand too often postflop when you miss your set, and when you do flop a set villain will not always have a hand he can pay you off with.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

our equity isn't all that great against hands willing to stick 90bbs in on this flop

ofc there are hands like AcKx and such we're pretty much flipping with and other hands like red AhAd we're probably a 2:1 favorite against, so I'd have to run calcs to see exactly what I think of this spot.

i have 36% vs a range that would stack off on flop ( AJcc+, overpairs w/ clubs, AK w/ clubs), so after a bet/3bet or a c/r if he shoves me i do have pot odds to cover my equity to a shove, but i am still confused if i should bet/3bet or c/r him in the first place, since he is folding in the best case 55% of his preflop range.( AJs,AK, overpairs w/o clubs) most likely he calls my 3bet, c/r with overpairs w/o clubs, and only folds AJs,AK w/o clubs and thats just 30% of his preflop range.

well if you lead you can be sure to get it in vs. the worst possible range for us equity wise as he'll fold his air and continue with everything else.

if you check you at least allow him to bet his bluffs and your FE improves

You said in your OP that he always bets if you check. If that is really the case, then check-raise is good. If he does not always bet, then checking is bad because you give him a free card to draw to a flush better than yours. In this case bet/shove is better (although it will depend on his range in this sitation: do the math!)

Make an effort and do the math for a couple of scenarios (c/shove and b/shove), the same way I did above. For example I didn't have AKo in his range and I assumed he called your shove with all his overpairs, but now you think he only calls with overpairs that have a club. So he folds more (good), but your equity against his calling range decreases (bad). Also Do the math for this scenario. This will help you get a feel for the situation and you can apply what you learn to similar situations later.

One think to keep in mind is that an OESFD is an extremely strong hand if you hold two of the cards that make up the draw (like 7s8s on a 5s6sXd board). It has more all-in equity than an overpair! It is much less strong (but still often very good) if you only hold one of the 4 cards, like in your hand above.

pew pew

Every time you post a hand you seem to have such accurate reads that I doubt the acuracy of them. I don't know how you can always be sure exactly how your villains play each part of their range but if you're just assuming these thinghs for sake of talking about the spot then awesome. If you also somehow manage to constantly obtain such immense reads then also awesome!

You have to let him stab all that junk here if you're so sure he bets 100% of air here. C/R and get it in, you have good equity vs almost everything and allow hium to put monies into a big pot whith FE. C/C here is the next best choice but this gets a bit messy on many many turn cards. I'd c/jam for sure. Betting the flop is terrible if he's betting 100% when checked to.

i am not sure he always plays like this, but based on reads and the way i see them play i can make a 70% sure assumption that this is how the villains plays. i also tend to put the worst case for me first and then the other cases as priority. may be of one of my leaks ( i have a lot i know)the fact i think that they always have the nuts or at least a better hand then me in spots like this.