Then my first instinct was correct
against these people you need to flop top pair and slow play it to the river to take their stack

it's not good to be taking guesses when your pot odds are non-existant since that's a large overshove
unless you think he will be shoving bluff here more than 50%
how would you have this information if you didn't see him show down a lot of bluffs? sure, he's shoved a lot, but he could be shoving wide for value