I was going to make a pretty long post about ranges, then couldnt be bothered, then you posted this but I still cant be bothered. So Ill just say that I think you overestimate your ability to read people if you think you can put someone on a flush draw when they play flush draws in the same way as they play TPTK, TPGK, straight draws and maybe even low overpairs or middle pairs on some boards. I also suspect that every time you guess right you allow it to reinforce your belief, while every time you get it wrong you blame it on a flukey bad read. The reality is that a lot of your river bets are going to be into flopped top pairs, rivered pairs, rivered gutshot straights and all sorts of other things that arent going to fold just because a flush card didnt come in. Id suggest you take a typical one of your hands, assign a range of other hands that make sense for villain to be holding after the flop and math out the value of your play based on that. Id be interested to see it.
