|
Without read, if we assume he isn't 3betting tremendously light, I would assign him a 3bet range of TT+, AQ+ here. It may be tighter if he's positionally aware, as a lot of people don't 3bet UTG raises all that often.
Flop and turn are pretty standard imo. If you lead the flop, you are allowing him to play relatively mistake free against you. He can fold all of his whiffed AK/AQ tight hands. And he can probably make a fold with TT. So I definitely c/c the flop. The turn is also standard for about the same reasons, and would have been interested had he also bet turn.
On the river if we use the TT+, AQ+ 3bet range, then 27 combos beat us (QQ+, AQ). Given pot odds we need to have 26% equity against his betting range to be profitable. If we can put another 10 combos in his range that we beat (say he bets the river with AK here), then we have >26% equity (10/37 = .27%). However, some part of his possible 3bet bluffing range hits the Queen as well, such as KQ, QJ, and also A4 hit which is generally a hand in a 3bet bluffing range. So he could potentially have more than 27 combos that beat us.
In any event, I think it's played fine up till the river for sure. On the river I think it's a toss up between c/c, and c/f, depending a good deal on villain and his likelihood of betting worse/bluffing.
Also, only 4bet preflop if you plan on calling if he shoves.
|