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A
The sad thing is, this is really hard to avoid.
The way the human brain is wired is that you standard have access to all your memories. It doesn't matter what you logically know, it's all about what your "mind's eye" can see. Now, if your brain shuts out access to negative experiences, you get what is above described. If you scan your memories (which happens automatically) all you see are positive things happening.. so even if someone tells you to be careful etc, it doesn't matter.. to you it seems nothing can go wrong.
Now, you'd be chronically depressed (there are documented cases of this) if your brain is not able to suppress (ie, refuse functional access to) bad things that have happened. IOW, your brain shuts out the negative memories to boost your confidence. To a human being, things will always look better than they are.
Ofcourse, if it shuts them out too much, you get a lopsided view of reality and you won't be able to function properly. In poker, you'll play out of your bankroll, assume everything will go well regardless of what you do, etc. And you can't help it.. you simply only see positive things.
One way this could happen is if the negative experiences are so bad (like trauma's) that your brain has to shut them out to keep you sane.. or, more realistically in poker, the positive experiences feel so good that you just kinda get stuck there.
To knock you out of this, you'll need some negative feedback. Kinda like a reminder things can go bad too. Sadly, in real terms this usually means you have to blow most of your BR.
So if you're in a phase of overconfidence, you are basically stuck in memories of good things happening (in poker). It might be nice to keep some evidence of things going bad (negative feedback) handy.. kinda so you can confront yourself with it and get 'complete access to your memories, the good and the bad' without the need to blow your roll in order to do so.
Well, I didn't really have a point here, just felt like giving a psychological explanation lol. I personally always like this more than a peptalk.
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