FD IP versus Flop Check/Raise

3rd hand at this table. FWIW villain is 50/50/0

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.12)
UTG ($7.12)
Hero (Button) ($5.23)
SB ($5.02)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 9
UTG bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) 8, 9, J (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB raises to $0.90, 1 fold, Hero ???

he seems to like his hand; i have the odds to call w/ nut FD, but is that the best line?

I might just call here. I would expect your FE to be low unless he has a draw himself.

you are IP so just call and see turn. reevaluate according to BB action and board texture on turn.

Idk, I don't like this board for your hand, I think when u flat here you turn your hand face up. I think if you hit your FD your not getting paid unless he has a flush as well. Or maybe a set you get paid on the turn if u hit, but I think he mucks river if board doesn't pair. If u brick turn he's going to bet you off your draw. I don't think your pot odds are quite there either, your getting 1.67 to .60..or roughly 2.5 to 1. That's not nearly enough to justify calling on this board, I think he shows up with the nuts too often. Your implied odds are shit, cuz of what I said before about turning your hand face up. Idk I would muck and look for a better spot, you have 32% equity if he doesn't have any blockers, Idk just my 2 cents.

^^ um, no...just no

Originally Posted by Shotglass

^^ um, no...just no

Explanation?

Originally Posted by acg123

your getting 1.67 to .60..or roughly 2.5 to 1.

Originally Posted by acg123

you have 32% equity if he doesn't have any blockers

how much equity do you think you need when you're getting 2.5 to 1...?

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

how much equity do you think you need when you're getting 2.5 to 1...?

Ok the exact % u need to call is 35%. You have 32% IF he doesn't have any blockers. Im just saying that with that close of a call I don't think its worth it, cuz your not getting paid off if you hit. Your going to just take down the pot.

you should never, ever fold.

i think we can even 3bet shove here

vs JJ,99,88,KQhh,QT,J9,J8,89 we have 42% equity.

if we add JT,9T,8T,67 we jump to 52% equity.


anyhow, there's no way to fold this vs this guy here. but i cant decide between callin or shoving

calling is fine.

if UTG started the hand with $4 or less i probably just jam it in knowing i probably have 40% + against his calling range. with these stacks i'm more inclined to flat and see a turn IP.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i think we can even 3bet shove here

vs JJ,99,88,KQhh,QT,J9,J8,89 we have 42% equity.

if we add JT,9T,8T,67 we jump to 52% equity.


anyhow, there's no way to fold this vs this guy here. but i cant decide between callin or shoving

Don't you think that you're turning your hand into a bluff when you shove?

Why get premature? The way this hand is starting to play there's a good chance that you'll get to the felt by the river.

i don't think it's terrible to jam here. we will get it in with probably 40% at worst, which means it will be close to neutral EV given the dead money.

here's our equity against a hastily-compiled, but seemingly reasonable calling range

Board: 9d 8h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.556% 44.04% 00.52% 34005 401.00 { Ah9h }
Hand 1: 55.444% 54.92% 00.52% 42413 401.00 { 88+, AJs, KhQh, QTs+, JTs, Th9h, AJo, QTo+, JTo }


"turning our hand into a bluff" isn't really how i'd describe jamming here because we have so damn much equity against villain's calling range. actually, looking at it this way, and bearing in mind we get our pot equity cut in half on ~70% of turn cards, i don't mind just sticking it in here. i'm neutral.

Originally Posted by acg123

Ok the exact % u need to call is 35%. You have 32% IF he doesn't have any blockers. Im just saying that with that close of a call I don't think its worth it, cuz your not getting paid off if you hit. Your going to just take down the pot.

where did you get 35%?

shove

Originally Posted by acg123

Explanation?

This is 5nl. Villain is only folding a set if there's four hearts on the board, and even then they find it hard to let go. Same with nuts, if villain has QT he's calling for his stack unless it's a seriously scary board.

b/c flop does not turn our hand face up, we can have overpairs, pair+draw combos like TT QJ JT etc, there's much more than nfd's that call a check/raise.

Having said that, I don't like the drop in equity if we brick the turn, especially when the turn pairs, and I like to play strong draws like this in a similar way to sets so it's hard for attentive villains to decide when we have a set, so I'd be happy to stack off here.