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 Originally Posted by littleogre
So the break even point is somewhere between 11-1 and 12-1
sounds about right
Originally Posted by littleogre
You really need thousands of hands on any given villain though if you want to get into post flop tendencies.
strongly disagree.
also, re the hand example you posted (ignoring that it doesn't really matter in terms of getting better at poker, and is in fact a waste of your time) - the chance of villain rivering his redraw to the boat/quads is a simple matter of counting outs right? ten outs? so, close to 20% of the time you're gonna lose your stack, about 80% of the time you'll double up (taking a zero rake approach  )
So, how about chucking those numbers into an ev equation, basically count your 4 turn outs, and the amount you win when you hit is determined from the 80% of times you win vs the 20% of times you lose. Add in the amount you lose when you miss the turn after calling, etc.
ez game? edit, just realised you already did something along these lines above - so thread is solved right?
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