Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
Why is there still no EV equation? Im not bullshitting you...pot odds/implied odds all comes straight from an EV calculation. If you want to know how often you can do something based on certain information you set up an EV equation, and make it look like the thing you want. I know you havent done one yet because you would have run into several problems based on the information given including what villain has the other 40% of the time.

You also seem to be traveling down a pretty dangerous road ogre. Poker is played against people, and people are constantly changing and adapting. I have 20k hands on pokerstars, and i was a way different person now than i was at the beginning of that 20k hands. At around hand 11k, i stopped cbetting like a monkey, so my average cbet% is probably much higher than what it is in reality. So even though you may have some data that says in the past villain had a set here 60% of the time...that doesnt tell you shit. The reason is that villain likely changed somewhere there and what your looking at is an average of his play, but not an accurate depiction of what his play currently is. Suppose villain is good, then hes on 2p2 and ftr and is constantly improving and changing (hopefully...). Suppose villain is bad, then maybe he recently watched Tom Dwan bluff Phil Ivey for more than 500k and now thinks poker is all about bluffing. Bottom line: YOU CANT USE STATS LIKE THIS. If you continue to youre only gonna find yourself losing, because even robotic players update their code once in awhile.
That's just it though some players don't change or atleast they are very slow to change. I have almost 20 thousand hands on this particular villain. Even if i break it down into several 1000 hands samples he has a set atleast 55 percent of the time in each sample Lots of 2nl players play by a chart and they don't vary from said chart. Also this dude only raises 4.5 percent. Also once he raises pfr he never folds post flop unless he has air. It is strange though that he has a set more often then over pair hands and tptk. I can only assume that he is checking those hands a lot of the time. As far as seting up an ev equation i'm not sure how. I'll try though.

amount to call =1 total money to win =15
odds of turning a str8=8.5 percent
odds of him rivering a boat=21.7 percent .
ev=(-.91)+(15*4/47)-(15*10/46) -2.8. That seems way off though so me thinks my formula is missing something. I gave it an honest effort though