Facing a river shove bad call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($3.89)
SB ($2.16)
BB ($2.03)
UTG ($0.85)
MP ($2.96)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
1 fold, MP bets $0.06, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.15) 10, 4, 10 (2 players)
MP bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.45) 4 (2 players)
MP bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

River: ($1.31) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $2.32 (All-In), Hero calls $2.32

Total pot: $5.95 | Rake: $0.29

This guy had been playing super tight and aggressive betting pot every time prior to this hand. My read was he might be trying to bluff with a PP 55-99 or barrelling an Ax hand. Is my thought process wrong here?

Raise pre. I hate thus now and want to fold.

I would raise the flop here because he will cbet anything on this board, and we're vulnerable to overcards on later streets. Fold to a shove over since 4x isn't in his range for raising pre and really I can't see him shoving PP's below the Jacks down our throats either, so we are really more than likely crushed if he shoves over.

Edit - As played I can't see that we're good often enough to call with no other reads.

I seriously fold the turn I dont see anyone firing away so big on this board with much we beat. I mean reads would help like if hes an aggro maniac then I suppose a call down has its merits. I dont really understand what youve wrote as your reads, sounds like you hope he would take this line with a bluff over an actual read that he would.

I think you're right kickass i think i was just hoping he was barrelling away than actually having a solid read that he was. I will think of this hand when facing similar decisions.

Thanks for all feedback.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

This guy had been playing super tight and aggressive betting pot every time prior to this hand. My read was he might be trying to bluff with a PP 55-99 or barrelling an Ax hand. Is my thought process wrong here?

Hi, Nice first hand to post.

OK here is where your thought process is wrong: You can't "read" that he might be trying to bluff. Putting him on the part of his range you beat and then calling that a read is a way to set money on fire long term.

Here is the thought process I have in this hand:

He's super tight so I'm going to take that as a pf raising range of 77+ AJ+ KQ. Normally I include more hands, but since you say "super" tight, we'll go with this.

I call on the button, because I've got a good hand against his range and I want position. 3-betting is an option, but with such a tight range this forces him to play correctly.

Flop is close to perfect. OK so I prefer binking a J on an A high flop, but this is pretty good. I know he fires near pot a lot, so when he does I'm happy and I don't rule any of his range out just yet. T's are less likely. Raising is an option here, but he might just dump missed overs that he'll bet again on the turn. As he likes to bet pot, we get more value by checking and check calling an under turn.

Turn card changes little, and he fires pot again. I'm starting to narrow his range a bit now because, with 2 pair on the board, he's behind to Ax. That only really rules out KQ. So I call.

River is a brick, happy days, but he massively overbets AI. Now I'm worried because he's seen me call twice, what can he think I have? My most likely hand is a pair of some sort, not necessarily higher than T's, but I'm unlikely to call two streets with air and no draw but I have something and it could be a T or quads. I give a lot less creidbility to a 3-barrel bluff here, because the board is not drawy enough for me to be calling with nothing.

So I'm going to have to narrow his range. Throwing out most of the A's and maybe even QQ leaves KK+, some A's and TT. (Note not AT because we have this "supertight" pf raising range, but a normal tag can have AT here).

So should I call. Well the EV calculation depends how many A's I left in. Personally, to 3-barrel here this smells like KK+ (and more like AA). I'd seriously consider folding.

wow thanks for such a detailed response, this makes sense, i like the way you've eliminated hands on each street like KQ when the board double pairs, as he isn't likely to bet KQ when he's behind to A high.

Also since there are no draws out there he's going to give me more credit for a hand when i call the flop and turn, which reduces the likelihood of him bluffing the river.

I need to start analysing hands like this at the tables and adjusting my range on each street. Thanks man.