exploiting bad beats of other players

This morning, I got to execute a play which I only get the opportunity to do once every few weeks, but is a very nice way to pick up a pot.

There was a player at my live table who sat down and was within 25 hands dealt two horrendous bad beats. The first time, he had raised Ace-King pre-flop, and hit his ace on the flop, bet like mad and was called down by someone who had Queen-2 and hit runner-runner cards to make 2 pair. The second time, he had played JT suited in a multiway flop, made his straight on the river, but got beat by a player who rivered a club flush with 7-2 suited under the gun(!). He was pissed. You could practically see the steam coming out of his ears. And he muttered things like "every time I get a good hand, someone catches something.

A few hands later I had A4 suited in the big blind. In a multi-way pot, the board came up AQT rainbow, turn a 5, river a K. I bet the flop, and 2 calling stations plus Mr. Bad Beat called me. I bet the turn, and again, the 2 calling stations (which had been at the table awhile and who I put on underpairs) called me and Mr. Bad Beat, who seemed like a good player and I figured had an ace with a higher kicker.

On the river, I decided to take a chance and bet again, with the 4 cards to the straight on the board. The 2 calling stations fold, and Mr. Bad Beat folded his Ace-10 (which he showed to the guy next to him).

Why did he fold? Simple human psychology. A few bad beats will condition us to think we are getting sucked out on every time. When that King came up, Mr. Bad Beat figured it happened again and folded to my aggression.

I've executed this bluff probably 6 or 7 times successfully. (Of course, if you get raised, you get the heck out of the hand!) Every time, the conditions are the same. Villain must have suffered at least 2 bad beats, in the recent past, and a board with 4 flush cards or 4 straight cards. If they are muttering things about their luck, even better.

The point of this is you need to watch when other players take bad beats, and not only because every human being loves to look at a car wreck. Try to identify players who might be susceptible to believing their good hands have been sucked out on again. And if the opportunity comes for a well timed bluff, take it. You have to be patient. As I said, this doesn't materialize every day. But it's a great scenario to watch out for, and one of the most profitable bluff scenarios I am aware of.

What I find considerably more interesting is that his poor confidence caused him to play his hand so passivly. He flopped two pair with a bunch of calling stations in the pot, yet he just called in case you had a set or something.

Judging by his play after this hand, I think he was deliberately slow playing. He was not a bad player by any means and probably figured that as long as the calling stations were building the pot for him, he was making a positive expected value play.

But yes, he should have raised me the hell out of there!

Originally Posted by LawDude

Judging by his play after this hand, I think he was deliberately slow playing. He was not a bad player by any means and probably figured that as long as the calling stations were building the pot for him, he was making a positive expected value play.

But yes, he should have raised me the hell out of there!

slow playing two pair on that board vs 3 opps is never good.

I guess it depends on your definition of bad player, because if you can handle a beat or two it's going to be hard to be a winning player.

he should raise and hope you call, not raise and hope you fold.

lAWDUDE, i FIND YOUR POSTS EASY TO READ , informative AND INTRESTING. (CAPS LOCK ON sorry).Keep them coming. A breeze of fresh air.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Originally Posted by LawDude

Judging by his play after this hand, I think he was deliberately slow playing. He was not a bad player by any means and probably figured that as long as the calling stations were building the pot for him, he was making a positive expected value play.

But yes, he should have raised me the hell out of there!

slow playing two pair on that board vs 3 opps is never good.

I guess it depends on your definition of bad player, because if you can handle a beat or two it's going to be hard to be a winning player.

he should raise and hope you call, not raise and hope you fold.

Here's what I mean when I say he was a decent player.

Your average player in the L.A. casinos is either loose aggressive (a maniac) or loose passive (a calling station). Furthermore, he almost never has any idea that he is beat, doesn't process information you give him about your hand (seriously, I have seen people call with 2 pair on the river after being TOLD "don't call, I hit my straight!"), plays lots of hands pre-flop, and just wants to get his money into the pot and hit the lottery. And he wouldn't know the concept of a read if you wrote down the probable ranges of his opponents in the hand and handed it to him.

This guy was not that. He was tight-passive. He shouldn't have been slow-playing, but he was clearly doing reads and put his opponents on draws. He had been betting the 2 hands he was sucked out on properly. He thought he had me beat all along (and his read was correct in that respect).

While he wasn't playing the way he should have been, that tight-passive style can actually be profitable in many L.A. casinos, simply because you avoid playing a lot of hands where you are going to lose money and you let the donks build up the pot when you have a good hand. It's not my style, but I've seen people do fine with it because of the mix of players we have.

So yes, of course I would be raising that two pair and making people on straight and flush draws pay a price if they wanted to stay in the hand. But the truly "bad" players in our casinos are not the tight passives who wait for the opportunity and then collect a bunch of chips from the maniacs and the fish. The truly bad players are the maniacs and the fish.

(Oh, and by the way, he might hope I call with A4, but if he raises, I fold. And just to underscore my statements about L.A. casino players, I'd say 75 percent of them would call a bet from a tight-passive player with a pair of aces and no kicker on a wet board.)

Originally Posted by LawDude

Your average player in the L.A. casinos is either loose aggressive (a maniac) or loose passive (a calling station).

What casinos and stakes do you play at?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by LawDude

Your average player in the L.A. casinos is either loose aggressive (a maniac) or loose passive (a calling station).

What casinos and stakes do you play at?

I'll post more specifics in a separate post in the live forum, but I play at Commerce Casino, Bicycle Casino, Hustler, and Hollywood Park. I play mostly $4-8, $6-$12, and $9-$18 limit. Occasionally, I play $20-$40 limit as well, and when no other tables are available, I will move down and play $3/$6 limit. (I used to do this more in the past.) At Hustler, I will sometimes play $100 $1/$2 no-limit, which is just about the only low stakes no limit game in town with enough of a buy-in to allow you to play a tight-aggressive game.

The hand I was talking about occurred at a Commerce Casino $4/$8 limit table. At Commerce and at that stakes, I would estimate that your average table will have:

1 or 2 loose aggressives.
5 or 6 loose passives.
1 tight passive.
1 or 2 tight aggressives.

Usually, only the players in the latter 2 groups are playing poker that would be recognizable to FTR regulars. The players in the first 2 groups generally are not doing reads, know nothing about ranges, and are playing high pot high variance lottery ticket poker.

Good times.

As you might imagine, I make quite a bit of money over the course of time doing this.

I found this passage from FTR's user reviews of Commerce Casino. It definitely captures the spirit of the place:
"“Fish farm” by ChezJ, 19 Sep 2005

"Atmosphere: 3/5 Wait: 4/5 Variety: 5/5 Fish: 5/5

"I expected the competition to possess some level of skill at the $4/$8 limit HE tables, since the casino offers three levels of lower stakes. Shockingly, the players were as bad as anything you would find at a PLAY CHIP table online. Raising the BB with 96s. Cold calling 3 bets. Bluffing on the river into 5 people. All you have to do is fold once in a while and you will have a huge edge over these dummies. Bet for value ONLY"