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 Originally Posted by caddie444
So he folds (55-31)/55 ----> 24/55 or 44% of the time
My equity vs his calling a shove range is 39%
1. 44% of the time when he folds I profit $7.10 (Whats in the pot) EV= (.44 x $7.10) = $3.12
2. 56% of the time he calls and I either win or lose:
a) win = (.56 x .39)($55.05) = $12.02
b) lose = (.56 x .61)($55.05) = -$18.81
EV of shove = $3.12 + $12.02 - $18.81 = -$3.67
I just did this intuitively so pls point out any errors if you see any
Something in the bold is wrong and I'm pretty busy at the moment and woke up late so I'm not going to go through and figure out what it is exactly, but basically you're not winning and losing the same amount in these scenarios. When you lose, you're losing what you shoved, and when you win, you're winning the size of the pot right before you shoved plus the amount he called.
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