Quote Originally Posted by REDBRG
As the range of one of the unknowns approaches infinity (in this case, all possible cards), the value of the answer that the formula spits out goes to kak. Basically, learning (or developing the instinct for) reads (that intangible "gut feeling") should probably be the first thing you do
You wanted this torn apart, so here goes!

Your second point first - how one earth can a noob learn reads? unless you're a follower of the whole luck odds/psychic poker theory (we get all sorts here on FTR) then this is utterly false. As I said above, you only develop reads and gut instinct through study and experience - they are a conscious or unconscious application of acquired knowledge. Indeed, there are many circumstances in poker where what appears logical or obvious on the surface turns out to be very wrong - an example, which I still do to this day, is turning medium strength hands into bluffs where you'll fold worse hands and get called/raised by better.

So the first thing you do is make efforts to learn the basics through a combination of microstakes play and reading/discussing about the fundamentals. After you've been doing both for several weeks, you'll begin to find yourself in positions where you can make reads, and where your experience tells you that certain moves and situations are likely to have meanings that you can exploit. Try doing this too early, and at best you'll be flipping; at worse you'll use mistaken logic and take yourself to the cleaners.

Your first point is just as wrong. The great majority of players play a small minority of cards - even maniacs play <50% the majority of the time. Hands that are raised probably average <10% in low limits. And each street reduces the number of playable hands further. So rather than tending to infinity, the ranges you put your opponents on actually heads towards being a very manageable number of possible hands, and with practice you will be able to put most players on a reasonably accurate range on each street. So not only is the EV formula the opposite of worthless, but it gets simpler as the hand progresses.

But to give you an example - let's say you are heads up against a guy who plays 100% of hands. By your reckoning, that means information is effectively infinite as you can't have any idea as to his hand strength. But in fact, you have perfect information - as long as you play a hand in the top 50% (let's say 45% to deal with blinds etc.), your play is +EV. Similarly, if you are up against someone who plays 10% of hands, you can assign a very accurate range and respond accordingly.

Obviously, most players fall somewhere between the two, and often it is genuinely hard to construct a realistic range, especially for a good lagg. But not only can you still do so, but each street you play will further narrow it, meaning you are able to make mostly +EV plays versus pretty much any opponent.