Quote Originally Posted by Thunder
Ok, seeing as the replies are here I'll continue.

I understand the basic concept that you guys have illustrated but it's when it gets moving like this, taken from http://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-expected-value.php:

There are 6 possible clubs that he will call with. So six times, you will win an extra $10. As there are 8 clubs available, the chance of him calling is 6/8 (six out of eight):
$10 * 6/8 = $7.5

If he raises, we know that you have a worse hand, and you will have lost $10.
-$10 * 2/8 = -$2.5

So your expected value of betting here is $7.5 + (-)2.5 = $5. Not bad

It's all to do with card reading and what you think your opponent is likely to do. Now I have a hard enough time guessing whether he will call/raise or fold at all - let alone break it down into percentages of likeliness (35% of the time he will call $10, 45% of the time he will call $5 etc). And that means there is zero chance of being able to break into percentages based on possible cards!
Now I see where you're headed with this thread. Here's what I do. At NL10 FR, I run the following "ranges" through my head when I'm playing: premium hands AQ+ and JJ+, all other pp's, Ax, Kx and "junk." This covers the vast majority of hands villains play against me (I'm agro preflop, and raise most pots I enter).

Now, I'm in MP with AJs, and come in for my standard raise of 3.5xBB + 1BB per limper. The button calls and everyone folds. The flop comes T 5 2 rainbow.

Here I think is where your question lies. What could villain have? Any pp, an Ace, a KTs+ and maybe some junk like sooted cards. I'm behind AK, AQ, AT, A5 and A2 and not enjoying A3 or A4 with straight draw. I'm ahead of any reasonable K except KT, and behind to all the pp's, especially to TT, 55 and 22. I'm ahead of most junk but will need to deny the pot odds for any flush/straight draws, which a cbet of 2/3's the pot will do.

So my choice comes down this: I'm ahead of this range enough to cbet? The answer I come up with is that I'm ahead about half the range (I haven't done the math - just quickly estimated like I do during a game). I have some fold equity with a cbet as some AK, AQ, A2 and small pp's will fold. So it's probably worth a cbet. I'm not really worried about AK, AA, KK because I would think I'd get rr'd with those hands. So they're possible, but not all that likely.

Now, the rest depends on my specific read on my villain. I think that EV calculations alone can get us this far, but before we make a flop cbet we need to have some idea if the villain is likely to call or push back. That's not what you asked, and it's a whole different thread.

So this is my quick-and-dirty range estimating and EV thinking in-game:

1. Premium
2. pp's
3. Ax
4. Good K's
5. Junk

Again, it's important to combine your typical range estimates with how you play. Since I play FR about 16/13, I'm usually in position and came in for a raise, so villains generally have one of those 4 types of hands with "junk" just meaning any crazy bs they pull on me.

I don't worry too much about what % of the time they'll have which range, or doing any more detailed calculations at the table. I certainly don't use poker stove while playing. That level analysis is for when we post on FTR and when we analyze how we're playing a certain type of hand by reviewing PT HH's, imo.

Hope this helps. I'm sure others will have great things to say on this.