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EV calculation correct?
100 BB stacks
preflop: SB raises 4BB; BB calls (8 BB)
flop 2d 6d Th
SB checks
BB bets 6 BB (14 BB)
SB raises 21 BB (35 BB)
BB goes all in 90 BB (125BB)
(SB calls 75BB and shows 2h2s ,BB shows KdJd)
Ranges:
assumptions: BB is aggressive player who will likely bet this flop with any pair or any draw
SB cr-range on flop: TT+,66,22,AdTd+ (total of 46 Hands)
SB call range on all-in: TT,66,22,AdTd (total of 19 hands)
against this range BB will loose 74.2% and win 25.8%
In 19/46 SB will call, 27/46 SB will fold.
EV calc. of the 90BB allin move by BB:
19/46*(-90BB*0.742 + 125BB*0.258) + 27/46*35BB = +6.28BB
Questions: given the ranges are my EV calculations for the 90 BB allin move of the BB correct?
The EV is positive but can we tell how profitable this move is ,given the range? So we risk a 90BB to win 6.28BB on average. Is this rather small or high or cant we really tell anything about this?
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