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Dryflop / Wet flop rating

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  1. #1
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Default Dryflop / Wet flop rating

    Ok

    We all know that Q 7 2 rainbow is the dryest flop possible. No straight draws, flush draw requires runner runner, top pair has 6 possible outs against it and really, it's the safest board to slowplay

    We all know that 7 8 9 of one suit is the wettest (for lack of a better word) possible. Even a pair of aces pre-flop is correct to forgoe the normal c-bet and even fold if there's a ton of action unless he holds one of the suits as a possible nut flush draw. Even sets get antsy about "correclty in most cases" stacking off here.

    But how do we rate all of the flops in between? Has anyone ever tried to put some sort of immediate mathematical emphasis on it? Would it have any practical use to help noobies evaluate the flop? I know for a long time, the only thing that "texture" of the flop meant to me was whether a flush draw was present...

    What I'm thinking is some sort of points system that will help a new guy understand what flops are safe to attempt a slowplay on, and what flops are manditory you bet, and what flops are acceptable to get away from high strength hands on. I think the biggest help would be the realization that slowplaying a dry flop is still pretty unreasonable unless the hand is super powerful, and the flop is like the sahara.

    Any ideas? Takers? or do I get to post another stupid graphical theory?
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  2. #2
    I've actually been thinking about this a bunch. What I'd love to find out is how often dry flops happen vs wet flops and how much doing something like giving up to aggression on dry flops could cost you.

    Here are the dimentions I would use to try to build a mathematical model:

    High Cardness: How many cards on the flop are in the range people are likely to play in big card hands A-T. In short-handed situations 9 and 8 have value here too.

    Connectedness: How many likely holdings would have flopped a straight or have a straight draw.

    Suitedness: Monotone, two-tone or Rainbow.

    On top of this, a pair on the flop is pretty dry depending on how big the pair is. 3ok is pretty much the driest flop possible.
  3. #3
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    IMO the toughest part of the model, is that I don't think a typical points system is going to work without some pretty complex numerations for the system.

    What's more, the system would have to include some sort of argument for how often you are to lose with the best hand, depending on what your best hand just so happens to be.

    KK on a monotone 98T flop is much less likely to win than TT on the same flop. Which means the weight will be different for "dryness of the flop" depending on your own holdings.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes

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