Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
You can't just subtract 8% from 40% there. It doesn't work like that. You've randomly picked two numbers and decided to subtract them.

For example, let's say we have 12 outs instead. Then our EV is 3x + (1-x)(12/46)(5) + (1-x)(34/46)(-2) and x has to be greater than 4/73 (about 5.6%) for our bet to be +EV. If you tried to just say 40% - 24%, you'd get 16% which is way off.
Thanks for your help. Even more thanks for your patience.
BTW the Captain is 20