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  1. #1
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ButtonMash View Post
    Forgive me if I being thick. Also, I'm not trying to be antagonistic.
    @ Oskar. I copied a solution from someone else as an example of a calculation I couldn't do whilst playing a hand.
    @ Spoon. I do get the point you made earlier that you didn't intend this to be done during play.
    I didn't randomly pick numbers. I took the ratio between amount that might be lost v the amount to be won. $2 : $5. ie 40 : 100. He has to fold 40% of the time for this to be a good play for us of we exclude the four outs. The quick calculation for outs is 2% per out per street. Four outs = 8% chance. An 8% improvement on the 40% (in absolute terms, not relative). This means he must fold 32% of the time for our turn bet to succeed. I thought this seemed a reasonable (pretty close to 31.7%) way to answer your original question in the time permitted during a game. I'll be quite happy if someone can show me mathematically where I'm going wrong because I'm obviously missing a point that others find quite elementary.
    You can't just subtract 8% from 40% there. It doesn't work like that. You've randomly picked two numbers and decided to subtract them.

    For example, let's say we have 12 outs instead. Then our EV is 3x + (1-x)(12/46)(5) + (1-x)(34/46)(-2) and x has to be greater than 4/73 (about 5.6%) for our bet to be +EV. If you tried to just say 40% - 24%, you'd get 16% which is way off.
  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    You can't just subtract 8% from 40% there. It doesn't work like that. You've randomly picked two numbers and decided to subtract them.

    For example, let's say we have 12 outs instead. Then our EV is 3x + (1-x)(12/46)(5) + (1-x)(34/46)(-2) and x has to be greater than 4/73 (about 5.6%) for our bet to be +EV. If you tried to just say 40% - 24%, you'd get 16% which is way off.
    Thanks for your help. Even more thanks for your patience.
    BTW the Captain is 20
  3. #3
    Okay so my question is what frequency do we barrel at here? Like A lot of people say you should set up your frequencies based on the cards you have, so does that mean we're db'ing everytime in this spot??

    Because I'm sure that out of all of the opportunities we have to bluff while playing, this is leaning towards the more marginal side- so like if we do this everytime that means we're bluffing a lot of more +EV times and then we're just bluffing too much and we get exploited.

    I've never gotten a grasp of this
  4. #4
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ButtonMash View Post
    Thanks for your help. Even more thanks for your patience.
    BTW the Captain is 20
    No he's not. You have no way to decide how old the captain is. That's the point: you can't just take random numbers and throw them together for no reason.

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