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Donk with suited flop?

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  1. #1

    Default Donk with suited flop?

    Too agreesive right here? Thought he'd fold a BIG hand, if not, i had outs

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    UTG ($23.40)
    UTG+1 ($4.50)
    MP1 ($26.40)
    MP2 ($14.70)
    MP3 ($25.10)
    Hero (CO) ($29.95)
    Button ($5.65)
    SB ($4.50)
    BB ($31.50)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with ,
    UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.25, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.75, MP3 calls $1.75

    Flop: ($8.35) , , (4 players)
    BB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets $6, Hero raises $27.95 (All-In), 2 folds, MP3 calls $17.10 (All-In)

    Total pot: $54.55
  2. #2
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    [ ] Stats
    [ ] Reads
    [ ] Ranges
    [ ] Analysis

    We're going to need something like at least 3 out of the above 4 before we can even begin to talk about this hand.
  3. #3
    oops, i pasted the hand over it, haha.

    The guy was 17/8/3.1 and 0.0 for 3 bet over a 86 hand sample

    So preflop, with the good implied odds, I put his range as
    { 22+, 89s+, AQo+, AJs+, KQs }

    When he donks 3/4 pot,
    his range is

    { 22, 88, KK, QQ ( with Q of diamonds) AA, T9s+ }

    I shoved because I know I was beat right there, with such a big raise, think he'd fold AK, QQ, maybe AA or a small set like 22 or 88 being a TAG. So that's around half the hand, the other hand, I was behind but I had outs.
    I thought that was the best play with fold equity.

    If i called, then I'd probably fold if I missed on the turn, but he has less than the pot left to fire.

    I just didn't see me folding to that flop.
  4. #4
    !Luck's Avatar
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    I don't think anyone is folding a set here.
  5. #5
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Villain's not folding a set here unless he's a total idiot, I mean with a drool bib and everything. Let's address how he should play a set here for some clarification.

    22 has about 34.4% equity against AQ of diamonds. After you shove, he's calling $17.10 and the pot before he calls is $37.45 if I counted it correctly. With this in mind, he needs 17.10/(17.10+37.45) = 31.3% equity to call. So not only would he call with a set here, it would be the correct thing to do if he knew you had a flush.

    Alright so that should help you out with the ranges you're dealing with here a bit. Now let's help you get some analysis worked out.

    When you're semi-bluffing all-in against one potential caller, the EV of your play is the following 3 things added up:

    1. (% he folds) * (pot size before you shove)
    2. (% he calls) * (your equity) * (pot size before you shove + the bet he called)
    3. (% he calls) * (his equity) * (- the bet you shoved)

    I'll give you an example and then you can try to work it out for the hand you posted. Say there's a $5 flop pot, my opponent bets $3, I shove to $14 (and he has me covered), he folds 55% of the time, and I have 35% equity when he calls. Here are the three parts:

    1. 0.55 * $8 = $4.40
    2. 0.45 * 0.35 * ($8 + $11) = $2.99
    3. 0.45 * 0.65 * (-$14) = -$4.10

    We add up $4.40 + $2.99 - $4.10 = $3.29, and that is what the EV of a shove would be in our example. So let's see what you can do with this.

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