Example 3: you have AhKh. The
flop comes 9h8c7d. You have 6
outs to
TPTK. You also have a
backdoor flush draw. A
backdoor flush draw is worth about 1.5
outs, and these
outs are to the
nuts. Your 6
outs to
TPTK, however, are less valuable than usual (usually an out to
top pair should be counted around 1/2-3/4 depending on how many people in the pot ... the more people, the less the chance
top pair will be good). If there are a lot of people in the pot, It is very likely at least one of them has an
OESD. Add this to the chances that someone has made 2pair, a
set, or will
improve to 2
pair, and your
TPTK outs are probably only worth a little over a third an out each. If you are
heads up, however, I would give the
TPTK outs at least 80% value. In that
case, though, your chances of being
ahead with A high are also significant, and it is unlikely that you are going to be folding. Let's be generous and give our
TPTK outs a value of 2.5. Added to the
backdoor flush outs, this gives us a hand worth 4
outs. A 4 out hand has a pot
equity of 16.5% on the
flop.
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